Our model puts a win probability on every MLB game and checks it against the bookmaker's odds. The Dashboard has the standings and full stats for free, and Pro members get the model's daily picks there too.
Pick a game and follow it pitch by pitch as it happens, with the score and the batter's and pitcher's stats kept up to date beside the commentary.
Most of the site lives in the Dashboard. Gameday has its own page for following games live, and the older stats and writing are a click away.
Analysis, previews and news from the Three and Two Baseball model team.
Three and Two Baseball is an independent MLB site. At the centre of it is a prediction model that works out a win probability for both teams in every game on the schedule. Around the model sit a stats dashboard that anyone can use for free and a live commentary page called Gameday. There are no ads and no sponsors.
Each team starts from an ELO rating that moves after every result. The model adjusts it for recent form, the head-to-head record, rest days and travel, then compares its number with the probability implied by the bookmaker's moneyline. A game only becomes a pick when our probability is clearly higher than the market's, so some days bring several picks and some bring none. The dashboard explains the method in more detail. Every pick the model has made this season, including the losers, is listed on the model tracker.
Gameday calls each MLB game pitch by pitch while it's being played. The score, the count and the runners on base update next to the commentary, and side panels show the hitter's season numbers and the pitcher's line for the day. Missed one? Yesterday's games can be replayed with the final score hidden until the end. You don't need an account for any of it.
Standings, league leaders, full stats tables, today's matchups, yesterday's results and Gameday are free for everyone, and so is the week's MLB schedule. Pro is for people who want the picks themselves. It adds each daily pick with its edge percentage and a 30-day results history. Pro costs $4.99 a month or $50 a year, and the first seven days are free.
Picks are analysis, not a guarantee. Betting carries risk, so only stake what you can afford to lose and check that sports betting is legal where you live. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Pro unlocks the model's daily picks with their edge %. You can also carry on for free with the stats, written analysis and Gameday.