17 games on the MLB slate for Friday 25 September 2026. The model has assessed every matchup against the current market.

Season record: 15/50 (30.0%)

Today's Picks

The model has identified 3 value bets today where our win probability exceeds the bookmaker's implied odds.

Houston Astros @ Oakland Athletics - MLB

• Model: Oakland Athletics 43.4% vs Houston Astros 56.6%
• Books: Oakland Athletics 38.1% vs Houston Astros 61.9%
• Pick: Oakland Athletics @ 2.58
• Kelly stake: 1.2% of bankroll

Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies - MLB

• Model: Philadelphia Phillies 56.3% vs Tampa Bay Rays 43.7%
• Books: Philadelphia Phillies 60.4% vs Tampa Bay Rays 39.6%
• Pick: Tampa Bay Rays @ 2.58
• Kelly stake: 1.3% of bankroll

Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants - MLB

• Model: San Francisco Giants 33.7% vs Los Angeles Dodgers 66.3%
• Books: San Francisco Giants 22.4% vs Los Angeles Dodgers 77.6%
• Pick: San Francisco Giants @ 3.80
• Kelly stake: 1.7% of bankroll

No Value Identified

The following games were assessed but the model found no edge over the market:

• Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees - model: New York Yankees 57.3% vs Baltimore Orioles 42.7%
• Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins - model: Minnesota Twins 48.0% vs Texas Rangers 52.0%
• Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals - model: Kansas City Royals 46.1% vs Cleveland Guardians 53.9%
• Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners - model: Seattle Mariners 55.6% vs Los Angeles Angels 44.4%
• Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox - model: Boston Red Sox 51.6% vs Chicago Cubs 48.4%
• Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox - model: Boston Red Sox 52.3% vs Chicago Cubs 47.7%
• Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays - model: Toronto Blue Jays 57.7% vs Cincinnati Reds 42.3%
• Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers - model: Detroit Tigers 50.8% vs Pittsburgh Pirates 49.2%
• Colorado Rockies @ Chicago White Sox - model: Chicago White Sox 68.1% vs Colorado Rockies 31.9%
• New York Mets @ Washington Nationals - model: Washington Nationals 49.2% vs New York Mets 50.8%
• Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins - model: Miami Marlins 46.7% vs Atlanta Braves 53.3%
• St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers - model: Milwaukee Brewers 66.0% vs St. Louis Cardinals 34.0%
• Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres - model: San Diego Padres 55.5% vs Arizona Diamondbacks 44.5%

Today's Schedule

• Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox - 1:05 PM ET - Fenway Park - Clay Holmes vs Alec Gamboa
• Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox - 5:35 PM ET - Fenway Park - David Peterson vs Brayan Bello
• Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees - 4:05 PM ET - Yankee Stadium - Trevor Rogers vs TBD
• Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees - 4:10 PM ET - Yankee Stadium - Brandon Young vs Brendan Beck
• Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers - 6:40 PM ET - Comerica Park - Bubba Chandler vs Jackson Jobe
• Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies - 6:40 PM ET - Citizens Bank Park - Freddy Peralta vs Cristopher Sánchez
• New York Mets @ Washington Nationals - 6:45 PM ET - Nationals Park - TBD vs Andrew Alvarez
• Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays - 7:07 PM ET - Rogers Centre - Nick Lodolo vs TBD
• Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins - 7:10 PM ET - loanDepot park - TBD vs Eury Pérez
• Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals - 7:40 PM ET - Kauffman Stadium - Gavin Williams vs Noah Cameron
• Colorado Rockies @ Chicago White Sox - 7:40 PM ET - Rate Field - Tomoyuki Sugano vs Sean Burke
• St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers - 7:40 PM ET - American Family Field - Michael McGreevy vs Robert Gasser
• Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins - 8:10 PM ET - Target Field - Jacob deGrom vs Joe Ryan
• Houston Astros @ Athletics - 9:40 PM ET - Sutter Health Park - Hunter Brown vs Jacob Lopez
• Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres - 9:40 PM ET - Petco Park - Brandon Pfaadt vs TBD
• Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners - 10:10 PM ET - T-Mobile Park - Reid Detmers vs Bryce Miller
• Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants - 10:15 PM ET - Oracle Park - Tarik Skubal vs Yunior Marte

Yesterday's Results

• St. Louis Cardinals 1 - Pittsburgh Pirates 2 (W: Luke Weaver, L: Ryne Stanek)
• Chicago White Sox 9 - Kansas City Royals 1 (W: David Sandlin, L: Randy Dobnak)
• Miami Marlins 1 - Chicago Cubs 2 (W: Matthew Boyd, L: Jack Ralston)
• New York Mets 1 - Texas Rangers 3 (W: Kumar Rocker, L: Zac Thornton)
• Arizona Diamondbacks 12 - Colorado Rockies 8 (W: Eduardo Rodriguez, L: Tanner Gordon)
• Milwaukee Brewers 5 - Philadelphia Phillies 1 (W: JoJo Romero, L: José Alvarado)
• Cleveland Guardians 1 - Boston Red Sox 0 (W: Joey Cantillo, L: Ranger Suarez)
• Tampa Bay Rays 4 - New York Yankees 6 (W: Bradley Hanner, L: Steven Matz)
• Cincinnati Reds 7 - Atlanta Braves 6 (W: Connor Phillips, L: AJ Smith-Shawver)
• Houston Astros 7 - Athletics 5 (W: Miguel Ullola, L: Scott Blewett)
• Los Angeles Angels 6 - Seattle Mariners 4 (W: Grayson Rodriguez, L: Bryan Woo)
• San Diego Padres 4 - Los Angeles Dodgers 2 (W: Yuki Matsui, L: Tyler Glasnow)

Standings

AL East

• Tampa Bay Rays 96-63 (.604) - Leaders (L2)
• New York Yankees 92-67 (.579) - 4.0 GB (W2)
• Boston Red Sox 85-74 (.535) - 11.0 GB (L1)
• Baltimore Orioles 78-81 (.491) - 18.0 GB (W3)
• Toronto Blue Jays 77-82 (.484) - 19.0 GB (L3)

AL Central

• Cleveland Guardians 83-76 (.522) - Leaders (W1)
• Chicago White Sox 82-77 (.516) - 1.0 GB (W1)
• Minnesota Twins 75-84 (.472) - 8.0 GB (W2)
• Detroit Tigers 74-85 (.465) - 9.0 GB (L2)
• Kansas City Royals 68-91 (.428) - 15.0 GB (L1)

AL West

• Houston Astros 79-80 (.497) - Leaders (W1)
• Texas Rangers 79-80 (.497) - Leaders (W1)
• Seattle Mariners 74-85 (.465) - 5.0 GB (L1)
• Athletics 63-96 (.396) - 16.0 GB (L1)
• Los Angeles Angels 61-98 (.384) - 18.0 GB (W1)

NL East

• Atlanta Braves 93-66 (.585) - Leaders (L1)
• Philadelphia Phillies 87-72 (.547) - 6.0 GB (L2)
• Miami Marlins 78-81 (.491) - 15.0 GB (L1)
• Washington Nationals 75-84 (.472) - 18.0 GB (W2)
• New York Mets 73-86 (.459) - 20.0 GB (L1)

NL Central

• Milwaukee Brewers 100-59 (.629) - Leaders (W2)
• Chicago Cubs 88-71 (.553) - 12.0 GB (W1)
• Pittsburgh Pirates 81-78 (.509) - 19.0 GB (W1)
• St. Louis Cardinals 77-82 (.484) - 23.0 GB (L1)
• Cincinnati Reds 74-85 (.465) - 26.0 GB (W1)

NL West

• Los Angeles Dodgers 97-62 (.610) - Leaders (L2)
• San Diego Padres 89-70 (.560) - 8.0 GB (W2)
• Arizona Diamondbacks 85-74 (.535) - 12.0 GB (W5)
• San Francisco Giants 65-94 (.409) - 32.0 GB (L2)
• Colorado Rockies 57-102 (.358) - 40.0 GB (L4)

Batting Leaders

Batting Average

• 1. Yordan Alvarez (Houston Astros) - .315
• 2. Luis Arraez (Philadelphia Phillies) - .310
• 3. Gabriel Moreno (Arizona Diamondbacks) - .308
• 4. Chandler Simpson (Tampa Bay Rays) - .308
• 5. Otto Lopez (Miami Marlins) - .304

Home Runs

• 1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (Chicago Cubs) - 45
• 2. Kyle Schwarber (Philadelphia Phillies) - 45
• 3. Pete Alonso (Baltimore Orioles) - 41
• 4. Yordan Alvarez (Houston Astros) - 41
• 5. Junior Caminero (Tampa Bay Rays) - 41

OPS

• 1. Yordan Alvarez (Houston Astros) - 1.032
• 2. Pete Crow-Armstrong (Chicago Cubs) - .948
• 3. Willson Contreras (Boston Red Sox) - .905
• 4. Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Dodgers) - .902
• 5. Ben Rice (New York Yankees) - .897

Pitching Leaders

ERA

• 1. Jacob Misiorowski (Milwaukee Brewers) - 1.86
• 2. Cam Schlittler (New York Yankees) - 1.95
• 3. Chris Sale (Atlanta Braves) - 2.16
• 4. Dylan Cease (Toronto Blue Jays) - 2.40
• 5. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Los Angeles Dodgers) - 2.53

Strikeouts

• 1. Jacob Misiorowski (Milwaukee Brewers) - 247
• 2. Gavin Williams (Cleveland Guardians) - 244
• 3. Dylan Cease (Toronto Blue Jays) - 239
• 4. Cam Schlittler (New York Yankees) - 239
• 5. Jesús Luzardo (Philadelphia Phillies) - 221

WHIP

• 1. Jacob Misiorowski (Milwaukee Brewers) - 0.80
• 2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Los Angeles Dodgers) - 0.87
• 3. Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays) - 0.91
• 4. Cam Schlittler (New York Yankees) - 0.92
• 5. Chris Sale (Atlanta Braves) - 0.98

Full picks, power rankings and season stats at [threeandtwobaseball.com](https://threeandtwobaseball.com)