Where the market gets it wrong, we get it right.
Every MLB game gets a model win probability, checked against what the bookmaker's odds imply. When the two disagree by enough, that gap is the edge — and that's the pick. We're running a 25% ROI on the season to date, and you'll find everything else you need to stay on top of the MLB right here.
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Today's full MLB slate — every matchup, starting pitchers, and first pitch time.
Final scores from yesterday's MLB games, and how our model's picks actually performed.
The full MLB playoff picture in one place: the bracket, every fixture and result, each series in detail, and how the twelve playoff rotations and lineups rank on our own TBA9− and TBO9+ numbers, for the regular season or for October alone.
Seeds 1 and 2 in each league have a bye to the Division Series. Wild Card Series are best of three, all at the higher seed. Division Series are best of five, the LCS and World Series best of seven. Click a series for the full breakdown.
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Pick a team to see how they stack up across the league — hitting and pitching, ranked. Pick a second team to compare them side by side.
Search any current MLB player for their live roster status, active, injured, or reassigned, pulled straight from MLB.
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Free stats for everyone. Picks and model edge % for members. Try Pro free for 7 days — no card needed.
Everything you need to follow the MLB season — standings, leaders, and full stats tables.
Full picks with model edge % and value analysis every day. Built for bettors who want a genuine data advantage.
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Model picks are the specific MLB bets our system flags each day — chosen only when its calculated win probability for a team is meaningfully higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds.
Edge is the gap between our model's win probability for a side and the win probability the bookmaker's odds imply. A bigger gap means a bigger disagreement between the market and the model — the picks we publish come only from games where that gap is real.
No. Standings, matchups, and live scores are free for everyone. The specific picks and their edge percentage are for Pro members.
See the season ROI, total picks, and win count above — those numbers update daily and reflect every pick the model has made this season.
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Three and Two Baseball publishes MLB picks and predictions for every game on the daily schedule. Each day the model gives both teams in a matchup a win probability, then compares it with the probability implied by the moneyline odds at the bookmakers. On most games the two numbers are close and there's no bet. When our number is clearly higher than the market's, the game becomes a pick, and the size of that gap is the edge percentage Pro members see next to it.
The starting point is each team's ELO rating. Ratings move after every result, and an average club sits at 1500. The model then adjusts for recent form, the head-to-head record between the two sides, rest days and travel. A pick is only published when the adjusted probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability by a real margin, so some days there are several picks and some days there are none.
On The Diamond lists every MLB game today with the probable starting pitchers and first pitch times. How It Went covers yesterday's final scores and whether each pick won or lost. The last seven days of picks are shown near the top of this page, and the full season record, win or lose, is kept on the model tracker. For the rest of the week's games, see the MLB schedule.
Alongside the picks you'll find MLB division standings, ELO power rankings for all 30 teams, batting and pitching leaders, full season stats back to 2024 and a player injury lookup. Two of the numbers are our own. TBO9+ rates hitters and lineups on the bases they produce, scaled so that 100 is league average and anything higher is better. TBA9− does the same job for pitchers and rotations on bases allowed, and there a lower number is better. Both are recalculated daily.
Gameday gives live commentary on MLB games as they happen, alongside the score, batter and pitcher stats and the model's edge. It's free and you don't need an account.
Standings, stats, matchups, results and Gameday are free for everyone. Pro adds every daily pick with its edge percentage, value analysis against the bookmaker lines, a 30-day results history and picks sent to Telegram each morning. It costs $4.99 a month or $50 a year, and the first seven days are free.
AL East: New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles
AL Central: Cleveland Guardians, Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers, Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins
AL West: Houston Astros, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, Athletics, Los Angeles Angels
NL East: Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, Washington Nationals, Miami Marlins
NL Central: Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates
NL West: Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres, Colorado Rockies, Arizona Diamondbacks
Picks are analysis, not a guarantee. Betting carries risk, so only stake what you can afford to lose and check that sports betting is legal where you live. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.