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I Built a Team to Challenge for the World Series on a $23 Million Budget

Baseball has evolved, but some things never change: money talks. The New York Yankees and New York Mets dominated payroll conversations in 2024, each boasting payrolls north of $300 million. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies weren't far behind, each fielding teams with contracts nearing a quarter-billion dollars. In contrast, the Oakland Athletics, with a meager $25 million committed to their starting nine batters, were outspent over tenfold by these titans of baseball. Yet, there's a way to challenge for a World Series without breaking the bank.

Our Aim: Achieve a Team TBO9 of 20.03

When we talk about building a team, we usually discuss power, defense, or pitching. But in this article, we're taking a unique approach by focusing on Total Bases Obtained per 9 innings (TBO9) as our key metric. TBO9 measures a player’s ability to generate total bases, including singles, doubles, triples, home runs, walks, and stolen bases, per game. A high team TBO9 score is crucial for sustained offensive pressure, and to compete with the best teams, we’ve targeted a combined TBO9 of 20.03, similar to that of the Dodgers' starting lineup which has just won the World Series. If you think about it, it makes sense. This amounts to around 5 runs a game, which will do you rather well over the course of a season.

The challenge? Constructing a team that reaches this TBO9 mark while spending less than the Oakland Athletics' 2024 starting nine payroll. By carefully analyzing free agents and finding value-for-money players, we can construct a competitive lineup without signing any superstars or offering massive contracts. Let’s explore how this is possible.

Big Names We’re Passing On

It’s tempting to look at free agents like Juan Soto, who had one of the best statistics in baseball including a TBO9 of 2.93 and belted 41 home runs. Players of his caliber demand astronomical salaries. Soto's next contract is expected to land somewhere around $70 million per year, far exceeding our entire team budget. Other stars, like Alex Bregman, are similarly priced out of our reach. We’re not chasing the headline-grabbers; instead, we’re looking for the most efficient, cost-effective players available.

Now that we’ve set the stage, let’s dive into each position and the players we’ve considered. Remember, our strategy emphasizes value over name recognition.

Catcher: Jacob Stallings

Jacob Stallings brings veteran experience behind the plate, coupled with solid defensive skills. He posted a respectable TBO9 of 2.20 and hit 9 home runs while batting .263 in 2024. His 2024 salary was $1.5 million, but based on his contributions, we estimate he could command a deal in the range of $2 million to $3 million. While not the flashiest choice, Stallings adds stability and leadership to the team, making him a valuable asset.

Name	Team	Age	PA	TBO9	HR	AVG	Salary
Kyle Higashioka	SDP	34	263	2.30	17	0.22	$2,180,000
Jacob Stallings	COL	34	281	2.20	9	0.263	$1,500,000
Travis d'Arnaud	ATL	35	341	2.10	15	0.238	$8,000,000
Yasmani Grandal	PIT	35	243	2.06	9	0.228	$2,500,000

First Base: Ryan O'Hearn

Ryan O'Hearn quietly put together a solid campaign in 2024, with a TBO9 of 2.17 and 15 home runs while batting .264. His power numbers make him a cost-effective power threat at first base. O'Hearn earned $3.5 million in 2024, and we project his market value to be similar next year. While not a top-tier first baseman like Pete Alonso or Paul Goldschmidt, O'Hearn’s ability to slug and get on base gives our lineup a crucial offensive boost.

Name	Team	Age	PA	TBO9	HR	AVG	Salary
Christian Walker	ARI	33	552	2.29	26	0.251	$10,900,000
Pete Alonso	NYM	29	695	2.28	34	0.24	$20,500,000
Carlos Santana	MIN	38	594	2.18	23	0.238	$5,250,000
Ryan O'Hearn	BAL	30	494	2.17	15	0.264	$3,500,000

Second Base: Whit Merrifield

Whit Merrifield may not be the same player who led the league in steals a few years ago, but he remains a versatile infielder with a TBO9 of 1.94. His .222 average in 2024 leaves something to be desired, but his experience and ability to play multiple positions are invaluable. He’s a steal at $1 million to $2 million, and his defensive capabilities make him a wise budget-friendly pick.

Name	Team	Age	PA	TBO9	HR	AVG	Salary
Gleyber Torres	NYY	27	665	1.97	15	0.257	$14,200,000
Whit Merrifield	---	35	335	1.94	4	0.222	$740,000
Jorge Polanco	SEA	30	469	1.90	16	0.213	$10,500,000
Kyle Farmer	MIN	33	242	1.82	5	0.214	$6,500,000

Shortstop: José Iglesias

José Iglesias had an outstanding 2024, batting .337 with a TBO9 of 2.15. His defensive range and soft hands make him a highly coveted shortstop, even at age 34. Iglesias made $1.5 million in 2024, but with his offensive and defensive contributions, he could command between $3 million and $5 million. He’s a bargain given the scarcity of quality shortstops in free agency.

Name	Team	Age	PA	TBO9	HR	AVG	Salary
Willy Adames	MIL	28	688	2.47	32	0.251	$12,250,000
Jose Iglesias	NYM	34	291	2.15	4	0.337	$1,500,000
Paul DeJong	---	30	482	2.01	24	0.227	$1,750,000
Amed Rosario	---	28	346	1.93	3	0.28	$1,500,000

Third Base: Gio Urshela

Gio Urshela may not be the flashiest name on this list, but his reliable defense and a TBO9 of 1.75 make him a solid budget-friendly option. In 2024, Urshela hit 9 home runs and posted a .250 batting average. His versatility in the infield adds value, and at an estimated $1 million to $2 million, he fits perfectly into our cost-effective strategy. While stars like Alex Bregman command over $28 million per year, Urshela gives us a dependable option at a fraction of the cost.

Name	Team	Age	PA	TBO9	HR	AVG	Salary
Alex Bregman	HOU	30	634	2.20	26	0.26	$28,500,000
Gio Urshela	---	32	461	1.75	9	0.25	$740,000

Left Field: Rob Refsnyder

Rob Refsnyder turned heads in 2024 with a TBO9 of 2.32, hitting 11 home runs and batting .283. His consistent offensive production and ability to play both outfield corners make him a valuable asset. Refsnyder earned $1.85 million last season, and we project a slight bump to $2 million to $3 million for 2025. Compared to outfielders like Michael Conforto, who are set to make over $18 million, Refsnyder is a clear value pick, providing pop and versatility without the price tag.

Name	Team	Age	PA	TBO9	HR	AVG	Salary
Jurickson Profar	SDP	31	668	2.33	24	0.28	$1,000,000
Rob Refsnyder	BOS	33	307	2.32	11	0.283	$1,850,000
Jesse Winker	---	30	508	2.23	14	0.253	$2,000,000
Michael Conforto	SFG	31	488	2.21	20	0.237	$18,000,000

Center Field: Kevin Pillar

Kevin Pillar is a veteran known for his exceptional defense and clutch hitting. In 2024, he managed a TBO9 of 1.94 with 8 home runs, batting .229. Though his average was lower than ideal, his experience and ability to make game-changing plays in the outfield make him a valuable addition to our lineup. Pillar’s estimated salary of $1 million to $2 million represents a bargain for a player with his skill set, especially when compared to other free-agent center fielders commanding $10 million or more.

Name	Team	Age	PA	TBO9	HR	AVG	Salary
Harrison Bader	NYM	30	437	1.94	12	0.236	$9,500,000
Kevin Pillar	---	35	314	1.94	8	0.229	$1,000,000
Manuel Margot	MIN	29	343	1.73	4	0.238	$10,000,000

Right Field: Randal Grichuk

Randal Grichuk was a force to be reckoned with in 2024, posting a TBO9 of 2.49 while batting .291 and hitting 12 home runs. His power and ability to get on base make him a critical component of our lineup. Grichuk’s current market value is estimated at $3 million to $4 million, which is a steal compared to elite outfielders like Juan Soto. For a team looking for power without the superstar price, Grichuk is the ideal right fielder.

Name	Team	Age	PA	TBO9	HR	AVG	Salary
Juan Soto	NYY	25	713	2.93	41	0.288	$31,000,000
Randal Grichuk	ARI	32	279	2.49	12	0.291	$1,500,000
Anthony Santander	BAL	29	665	2.45	44	0.235	$11,700,000
Jason Heyward	---	34	258	2.11	10	0.211	$740,000

Designated Hitter: Andrew McCutchen

Andrew McCutchen has had a storied career, and in 2024, he proved he still has plenty to offer with a TBO9 of 2.14 and 20 home runs. Although his batting average dipped to .232, his ability to draw walks and hit for power make him a valuable designated hitter. McCutchen’s estimated salary for 2025 is around $5 million, a reasonable price for a player who can anchor the middle of the lineup and provide leadership in the clubhouse.

Name	Team	Age	PA	TBO9	HR	AVG	Salary
Marcell Ozuna	ATL	33	688	2.66	39	0.302	$16,000,000
Joc Pederson	ARI	32	449	2.52	23	0.275	$9,500,000
Andrew McCutchen	PIT	37	515	2.14	20	0.232	$5,000,000
J.D. Martinez	NYM	36	495	2.05	16	0.235	$9,500,000

Summary

Name	Team	Age	PA	TBO9	HR	AVG	Salary	FanGraphs Worth	Estimated Value
Andrew McCutchen	PIT	37	515	2.14	20	0.232	$5,000,000	$3,900,000	$3,000,000
Whit Merrifield	- - -	35	335	1.94	4	0.222	$740,000	$3,600,000	$1,500,000
Jose Iglesias	NYM	34	291	2.15	4	0.337	$1,500,000	$20,300,000	$4,000,000
Gio Urshela	- - -	32	461	1.75	9	0.25	$740,000	$5,600,000	$1,500,000
Rob Refsnyder	BOS	33	307	2.32	11	0.283	$1,850,000	$9,700,000	$2,500,000
Kevin Pillar	- - -	35	314	1.94	8	0.229	$1,000,000	$4,400,000	$1,500,000
Randal Grichuk	ARI	32	279	2.49	12	0.291	$1,500,000	$12,300,000	$3,500,000
Jacob Stallings	COL	34	281	2.20	9	0.263	$1,500,000	$7,500,000	$2,500,000
Ryan O'Hearn	BAL	30	494	2.17	15	0.264	$3,500,000	$13,500,000	$3,500,000
Total				19.10			$17,830,000	$80,800,000	$23,500,000

By assembling this team of undervalued free agents, we've built a lineup with a combined TBO9 of 19.10 - slightly under the LA Dodgers offense — all for just $23.5 million. These players may not be the biggest names in free agency, but their performance and potential make them strategic acquisitions for any team aiming to maximize production while minimizing payroll. Any MLB team, even those with tight budgets, could deploy this lineup and compete for a championship. Next up, we'll explore how to construct a cost-effective pitching staff to complement this offense.

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29 October 2024 World Series - Three Key Questions Going into the World Series and How They've Played Out

Before this World Series began, I identified three pivotal questions that I believed would shape the series and potentially decide the championship. Here’s a look at how these questions have played out:

1. Will Freddie Freeman Be Fit to Play?

Freddie Freeman’s fitness was one of the biggest question marks entering the World Series. Nursing an ankle injury, there was a 50-50 chance he’d even make it to the plate. But, as we now know, Freeman didn’t just show up—he dominated. Freeman’s impact on the Dodgers’ lineup has been nothing short of remarkable. Through three games, he’s hit a home run in each, propelling the Dodgers to a 3-0 series lead. His batting stats have been astounding, with 4 hits in 12 at-bats, including 3 home runs, giving him a TBO9 of 12.00. In a series where every run matters, Freeman has been the nailed-on MVP so far.

When we compare Freeman’s performance to the rest of the batters in the series, the contrast is stark. Dodgers teammate Tommy Edman has a TBO9 of 9.00, while the Yankees’ Juan Soto has managed an 8.10. Most Yankees hitters, however, are far behind: Anthony Rizzo sits at 5.62, and Giancarlo Stanton and Alex Verdugo hover around 5.5. With Freeman firing on all cylinders, he’s been a constant thorn in the Yankees’ side, showing what a difference a single player can make when he’s in top form.

2. Will Aaron Judge Find His Form?

Aaron Judge was the leading batter in baseball this year. His regular-season stats were otherworldly: a .322 batting average, 58 home runs, an OPS of 1.159, and a TBO9 of 8.29. Entering the postseason, the Yankees needed Judge to continue his dominance. He is, after all, the captain and AL MVP, the player opponents fear most.

However, Judge has struggled to find that regular-season magic. Through three World Series games, he has managed just one hit in 12 at-bats, giving him a low TBO9 of 1.50. His plate appearances have been disappointing; he’s swinging at pitches he usually lets go, and striking out when the team needs him on base. For Yankees fans, this is a painful turn of events. Judge’s postseason performance has been in decline: a TBO9 of 3.77 and only two home runs in earlier rounds, inching up to 5.62 in the ALCS. But the Yankees need him to play at his regular-season level to have any hope of a comeback, and he hasn’t delivered.

3. Is Gleyber Torres Key for the Yankees?

Going into the series, Gleyber Torres was seen as a potential x-factor for the Yankees. With a regular-season ranking of 228th in MLB, Torres is often a middle-of-the-road hitter, but his postseason TBO9 of 3.89 showed he could have moments that would be essential to Yankees success. The idea was that Torres would get on base and set up a lethal lineup of Soto, Judge, and Stanton, putting early pressure on Dodgers pitching.

In reality, Torres hasn’t managed to elevate his numbers. His series stats stand at 2 hits in 11 at-bats, with a TBO9 of 4.91. While not far off his regular numbers, Torres hasn’t been able to step up when the Yankees needed him most. His performance has been solid but unremarkable, especially as those following him in the lineup haven’t been firing either. Without the power of Soto, Judge, and Stanton in peak form, Torres’ efforts haven’t had the impact the Yankees were hoping for.

In summary, two of my three questions have turned out to be defining factors for this series. Freeman has played at an MVP level, Judge has yet to find his footing, and Torres hasn’t provided the boost the Yankees need. With the Dodgers leading 3-0, the Yankees are staring down an insurmountable deficit. They’ll need Judge, Torres, and the entire lineup to show up if they hope to turn the tide. The series continues tonight, with first pitch at 8:08 pm ET.

The June Review - Long Read

We are into June, now nearly 60 games into the season. Well over a third but a good few games short of the half way stage. Now is an excellent time to review what’s been going on as the early “starts” have now settled down into proper long-term form. We can now see with a great deal of clarity who are the runners and riders for the 2024 crown, and which teams will be putting their feet up come the end of September.

We’ll start by having a look at each league and seeing who are the teams most likely to go to the postseason and who will have a real shot at the title.

The Contenders
American League
New York Yankees
Cleveland Guardians
Baltimore Orioles
Seattle Mariners

National League
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
Los Angeles Dodgers

New York Yankees
The Yankees made some big moves in the postseason, most notably bringing in Juan Soto for the last year of his contract. He has been truly transformative for the Yankees, really getting them going at the start of the season when previous superstars took their time to get going. He has brought a sense of gravitas to the team, a “Look out, don’t f**k with us, we mean business”, side to the Yankees which has been missing for quite some time. The Yankees were picked by many experts to have a stellar season, principally based on the power they have in their batting line-up. The Captain, the face of Ralph Lauren, Aaron Judge had a lot to do with that, however he started the season in terrible form, even to the extent that he was booed by his own fans. Well, form is temporary, class is permanent, and he has turned it on over the past couple of months. We have him ranked as the second most productive batter in baseball this season, which is phenomenal after his poor start. Overall, if you take the batters who have had 50% or more of the available at bats this season, and rank their productivity, the Yankees have 5 players in the top 100. The Yankees' pitching rotation has been excellent, without superstar Gerrit Cole, the best pitcher in baseball over the past few years, who has been injured but soon to return. We have the Yankees’ rotation as the sixth best out of the 10 major contenders. This more than serviceable pitching, that will surely be boosted by Cole, combined with their power hitting, rightly has Yankee fans pretty content and sure that they will be around at the business end of the season.

Cleveland Guardians
Second in the AL Rankings are the Cleveland Guardians. They have been excellent this season and have been one of the biggest surprises this year. They are motoring ahead at the top of the AL Central. However, whilst they look nailed on for a postseason spot, a little digging shows that their starting rotation is actually ranked 10th of the 10 challengers we have identified, giving up almost 30 more total bases combined amongst the top four starting pitchers than the highest ranked team. Their batting is also lacking genuine superstars, relying on an excellent team dynamic instead. The Guardians only have 2 batters in the top 100 in José Ramirez and Josh Naylor, however both ranked high-ish at 23 and 29 respectively. Of all the high flying teams, we predict it is the Guardians who will struggle the most to stay up there, and have them ranked 6th in our Team Power Rankings.

Baltimore Orioles
Third in the AL rankings and second in their division behind the Yankees are the Baltimore Orioles. We actually have the Orioles ranked #1 and a team with a real shot of postseason glory, based on the difficulty of their fixtures to date. The Orioles have been very powerful and they have five batters in the top 100, led by Gunnar Henderson who has been phenomenal so far this season, and every indicator suggests he will keep going in this vein of form. Building on from last season when they broke the 100 wins barrier but lost out in the postseason to the Rangers, many people predicted a drop off in performance this year. In fact, they are better, with a more balanced team. They are well on track to win more than 100 games again. The Orioles signed Corbin Burns in the off season, a real ace to boost their pitching, and he has led the way. However, whilst Burns is producing and ranked as the 11th most effective pitcher, the rest of the rotation struggles slightly, placing 54, 97 and 101 respectively. Our prediction is that if the Orioles make a move for a leading pitcher before the Trade Deadline, they will be the real deal. Otherwise, they will probably just fall short again.

Seattle Mariners
The Mariners haven’t exactly been lighting things up, but they are leading the AL West by five games from the Texas Rangers. The big strength for the Mariners is their pitching rotation. It’s good, it’s very good. Maybe they are missing the real leading ace but their top 4 pitchers are ranked the fourth best in baseball with Gilbert, Kirby, Miller and Castillo all placed between 30 and 67 in the rankings. That is high quality starting pitching, the type that wins series in the postseason. Whilst their bats may not be elite (apart from Dylan Moore who is 12th in our rankings), they have three in the top 100 who could do some damage. Overall, a team to watch out for and could be a real banana skin come late September.

Philadelphia Phillies
Only one team has been grabbing all the attention so far in the National League, and perhaps all of baseball. The Phillies have been phenomenal. Check out their top 4 pitchers, 6, 12, 13 and 83. That is elite and the best in baseball. Then let’s have a look at their batting. Six batters placed in the top 50! Led by superstar Bryce Harper, who is on a mission to win the World Series in Philly, it is all coming together. Often slow starts would cost Philadelphia from winning their division, losing out to the ever brilliant Braves, however, this year they have been electric from the start. Can they keep this up? Maybe not quite the level they are going at, they are on course for around 110 wins, but you can bet your bottom dollar they will be there in October. A superb season and it’s very exciting.

Atlanta Braves
The Braves are perennial powerhouses. They have been one of the favourites to win the World Series every year for about the last five years. They completed that mission in 2021. This year, the expectations were again that they would crush all before them on the way to the postseason. However, whilst it is by no means panic stations, they are currently on track for a relatively poor 94 wins. They have seen their chances of being one of the two top seeds in the league gradually reduce as the Phillies have remained so strong. For the first time in what feels like ages, they will probably have to navigate the notoriously unpredictable wildcard round. What’s been the issue and will they be competitive? Their batting has not been too bad, just not league leading like usual. They still have three batters in the top 100. However, they have been rocked by an injury to Acuña Jr, last years MVP who will be out for the season and who was the fourth man in the top 100. Marcell Ozuna has been excellent and is ranked 7th among batters. Their pitching has not been bad at all either, with their top 4 pitchers ranking third among starting rotations in the MLB which is top, top tier, and should make everyone watch out. Overall, whilst not hitting the heights, we imagine the Braves will still be a real force to reckon with in the postseason, and with that pitching, will be a real contender once again.

Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers, made a phenomenal splash in the offseason making all kinds of mega deals, none more so than the deal to sign Ohtani to a ten year 700 million dollar contract. Has it paid off? It’s interesting times over at the Dodgers. Struggling for consistency they are clearly a team to be taken seriously. Ohtani has been unreal and is consistently in the top 3 batters in baseball in our rankings. He is ably supported by Betts at 6th, and the Dodgers have 6 batters in the top 100 with the lowest coming in at 51. That is their real strength. They have power and can blow anyone out of the water. They have gone through patches so far of looking unbeatable and then suddenly losing five or so on the bounce. They are still on track for 101 wins and are clear favourites for that second top seed in the National League, but it has been slightly curious all the same. It is the pitching which can sometimes look at little frail. Big money signing from Japan, Yamamoto, has been getting better and is 38th in our rankings, very respectable. Tyler Glasnow, in from the Rays has been excellent, a real leading ace. However, beyond these two it is not great and they have the fifth ranked starting rotation. Will that be enough in the postseason? If Ohtani and his pals come to play, then it probably will.

The Best of the Rest
Is there anyone else out there who could pick things up and have a shot?

The Brewers are leading the NL Central comfortably and should make the postseason. Their pitching isn’t bad at all led by the excellent Freddy Peralta and ably supported by Colin Rea and Joe Ross. They also have a couple of excellent batters in William Contreras and Joey Ortiz at 17 and 18 in the rankings. Their problem is that once in the postseason they will probably be overpowered by the other teams around them and so it’s hard to pick them out as potential winners.

The Rangers and Diamondbacks, last years’ finalists, are struggling to recapture that same form and look like outsiders to get a wildcard spot. The same as the Astros who had a shocking start, but have been getting better without really excelling. It looks a long shot that they will make it. The Rays are struggling this year, as are the Blue Jays. The Royals are a good team and will battle it out with the Twins for a wildcard spot, but that will be about it for them.

Curve Ball Choice
The Chicago Cubs. Sitting second in the NL Central, seven games back on the Brewers, they are in a dogfight for a wildcard spot against the Cardinals, Padres and Giants. However, if they get there, they have the pitchers in Imanaga and Assad to do some real damage. They also have six batters in the top 100, although five of them are in the bottom half. It does show though that they have the talent and so if their bats get hot, anything is possible.

Predictions
Winners: Philadelphia Phillies
Runners Up: Baltimore Orioles
Left field choice: Chicago Cubs

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MLB 2024 Postseason Pitching Rotations: A Comparative Analysis Based on TBA9

As the MLB 2024 season heads towards the postseason, the focus intensifies on the pitching rotations that could lead their teams to victory. An essential metric in evaluating a pitcher's effectiveness is Total Bases Allowed per 9 innings (TBA9). This article compares the top rotations based on their combined TBA9, highlighting their strengths and weaknesses.

Rank	Team	Pitcher 1	TBA9	Pitcher 2	TBA9	Pitcher 3	TBA9	Pitcher 4	TBA9	Total TBA9
1	PHI	Ranger Suárez	8.69	Zack Wheeler	10.61	Aaron Nola	13.15	Cristopher Sánchez	13.59	46.06
2	ATL	Chris Sale	9.77	Reynaldo López	10.91	Max Fried	12.99	Charlie Morton	13.30	46.97
3	CHC	Shota Imanaga	9.81	Javier Assad	10.48	Ben Brown	12.82	Jameson Taillon	15.09	48.20
4	SEA	Logan Gilbert	12.06	George Kirby	12.51	Bryce Miller	13.10	Luis Castillo	13.48	51.15
5	LAD	Tyler Glasnow	10.74	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	12.50	Gavin Stone	13.30	James Paxton	15.51	52.05
6	NYY	Luis Gil	11.39	Nestor Cortes	12.71	Clarke Schmidt	12.91	Carlos Rodón	15.22	52.22
7	BAL	Corbin Burnes	12.16	Dean Kremer	15.48	Cole Irvin	11.33	Grayson Rodriguez	14.40	53.37
8	SDP	Yu Darvish	9.34	Dylan Cease	10.68	Matt Waldron	16.40	Michael King	17.80	54.22
9	MIL	Freddy Peralta	13.54	Colin Rea	16.62	Joe Ross	15.00	Bryse Wilson	14.61	59.76
10	CLE	Tanner Bibee	14.83	Triston McKenzie	15.29	Logan Allen	17.79	Carlos Carrasco	17.96	65.86

The Philadelphia Phillies' rotation tops the list with the lowest combined TBA9 of 46.06. Ranger Suárez, with a TBA9 of 8.69, and Zack Wheeler, at 10.61, anchor a formidable rotation. These pitchers excel at limiting opponents' opportunities, crucial for postseason success. However, Aaron Nola and Cristopher Sánchez, with TBA9s of 13.15 and 13.59 respectively, show slight vulnerabilities that could be critical in high-stakes games.

Following closely are the Atlanta Braves with a combined TBA9 of 46.97. Chris Sale and Reynaldo López are standout performers with TBA9s of 9.77 and 10.91. Their ability to control games and limit bases is a significant strength. Nonetheless, Max Fried and Charlie Morton, with higher TBA9s of 12.99 and 13.30, respectively, present potential risks, especially in pressure-filled postseason scenarios.

The Chicago Cubs come in third with a combined TBA9 of 48.20. Shota Imanaga (9.81) and Javier Assad (10.48) provide a robust front, making the Cubs' rotation one of the most competitive. However, Jameson Taillon's higher TBA9 of 15.09 indicates an area that might be exploited by strong offensive teams in the playoffs.

The Seattle Mariners' rotation, with a combined TBA9 of 51.15, features Logan Gilbert (12.06) and George Kirby (12.51) as key players. They are effective in limiting opponents' bases, but Luis Castillo and Bryce Miller, with TBA9s of 13.48 and 13.10, respectively, need to maintain consistency to ensure postseason success.

The Los Angeles Dodgers' rotation, with a combined TBA9 of 52.05, is led by Tyler Glasnow (10.74) and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (12.50). While they have the potential to dominate, Gavin Stone and James Paxton, with higher TBA9s of 13.30 and 15.51, respectively, need to reduce their vulnerability to secure wins in critical games.

The New York Yankees follow closely with a combined TBA9 of 52.22. Luis Gil (11.39) and Clarke Schmidt (12.91) contribute significantly to the rotation's strength. However, Carlos Rodón's TBA9 of 15.22 highlights a potential weakness that could impact the team's postseason performance.

The Baltimore Orioles' rotation, with a combined TBA9 of 53.37, is anchored by Corbin Burnes (12.16) and Cole Irvin (11.33). Despite their effectiveness, Dean Kremer (15.48) and Grayson Rodriguez (14.40) show higher TBA9s, indicating areas that need improvement to enhance their playoff prospects.

The San Diego Padres' rotation, with a combined TBA9 of 54.22, features Yu Darvish (9.34) and Dylan Cease (10.68) as standout pitchers. However, Matt Waldron and Michael King, with TBA9s of 16.40 and 17.80, respectively, present significant vulnerabilities that could be detrimental in postseason play.

The Milwaukee Brewers' rotation has a combined TBA9 of 59.76, with Freddy Peralta (13.54) and Bryse Wilson (14.61) leading the charge. Despite their strengths, Colin Rea (16.62) and Joe Ross (15.00) allow more bases, posing challenges for the team's postseason ambitions.

Finally, the Cleveland Guardians' rotation, with the highest combined TBA9 of 65.86, faces significant challenges. Tanner Bibee (14.83) and Triston McKenzie (15.29) are effective, but Logan Allen (17.79) and Carlos Carrasco (17.96) need to improve significantly to compete effectively in the postseason.

Analyzing the combined TBA9 of these top rotations offers valuable insights into their strengths and potential weaknesses. Teams like the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves, with the lowest combined TBA9s of 46.06 and 46.97 respectively, have a robust advantage in limiting base runners, which is crucial for postseason success. The Phillies, led by Ranger Suárez and Zack Wheeler, and the Braves, with Chris Sale and Reynaldo López, showcase a strong ability to control games and minimize offensive threats from opponents. In contrast, teams like the Cleveland Guardians and Milwaukee Brewers face significant challenges with the highest combined TBA9s of 65.86 and 59.76. The Guardians' rotation, which includes Tanner Bibee and Triston McKenzie, and the Brewers, led by Freddy Peralta and Bryse Wilson, will need to address their vulnerabilities to improve their postseason chances. The Chicago Cubs and Seattle Mariners also present competitive rotations with combined TBA9s of 48.20 and 51.15, respectively. However, they must ensure consistency from their back-end pitchers to avoid potential exploitation by strong offensive teams. The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees, with TBA9s of 52.05 and 52.22, respectively, have rotations capable of dominating but need to mitigate the higher TBA9s of some pitchers to strengthen their postseason performance. Meanwhile, the Baltimore Orioles and San Diego Padres, with TBA9s of 53.37 and 54.22, showcase potential but must address the higher base allowances from certain pitchers to enhance their playoff prospects. Overall, the effectiveness of these rotations will be pivotal in the postseason, where limiting base runners and controlling the game's pace are essential for success. Teams with lower TBA9s are better positioned to make deep postseason runs, while those with higher TBA9s must strategize to overcome their weaknesses and maximize their chances in the playoffs.

SHO-TIME! Is Ohtani having one of the best seasons ever?

Shohei Ohtani is absolutely tearing it up. He continues to captivate the baseball world in 2024 with his exceptional performance as a hitter. Despite being sidelined from pitching due to injury, Ohtani's batting prowess as designated hitter already has people takling about him winning the MVP award. So, just how good is he? Just how good is the season that he is having? We need some stats and a deep dive. Let's analyse how his performance compares to historical greats.

Ohtani's 2024 Performance
As of May 19, 2024, Ohtani has played 46 games with 183 at-bats. He has accumulated 64 hits, including 16 doubles, 1 triple, and 13 home runs. Additionally, he has driven in 32 runs (RBI), walked 23 times, and struck out 40 times. Not bad, not bad at all...a season for the ages. Or is it?

Total Bases per 9 Innings (TBO9)
The Total Bases per 9 Innings (TBO9) is a metric that captures a player's offensive production by accounting for their total bases accumulated per nine innings. Ohtani's TBO9 of 7.77 this season is noteworthy. It's good, very, very good. BUT....it's not exceptional. It's not historically exceptional. It's not the best season ever, a little persepective. It's not even in the top 100 seasons ever, if he was to keep up this rate. It actually ranks 118th among the best seasons ever recorded.

To provide some context, Barry Bonds holds the top spot with a utterly ridiculous TBO9 of 27.04 during his 2002 season. This was a year when Bonds achieved a batting average of .370, hit 46 home runs, and drew an astounding 198 walks. Similarly, legendary seasons by Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, and Mickey Mantle often saw TBO9 values exceeding 15, underscoring their extraordinary offensive impact during their peak years.

Comparisons and Historical Context
While Ohtani's TBO9 of 7.77 might not place him among the absolute highest in history, it's essential to recognize the broader context of his contributions. Unlike most players on the all-time list, Ohtani is known for his dual-threat capability as both a pitcher and a hitter. However, his current injury has limited him to hitting duties only, but still, it is always worth to remember, he's also one of the best pitchers in the game.

Ohtani's Impact on the Dodgers
Ohtani's performance has been crucial for the Dodgers. His presence in the lineup provides a significant boost, making him a central figure in their quest for postseason success. The combination of his batting statistics, highlighted by his high batting average and slugging percentage, makes him a unique asset.

The Dodgers are well-positioned to leverage Ohtani's talents as they aim for a deep postseason run. His ability to influence games offensively adds a layer of strategic advantage that few teams can match. Despite his inability to pitch, Ohtani's offensive contributions ensure that he remains an invaluable player.

Conclusion
Shohei Ohtani's 2024 season is a testament to his extraordinary talent and versatility. While his TBO9 of 7.77 ranks 118th in historical context, this statistic alone doesn't capture the full extent of his impact. Ohtani's hitting excellence makes his achievements even more significant, highlighting his unique place in baseball history.

As Ohtani continues to perform at an elite level at the plate, he not only entertains fans but also solidifies his legacy as one of the most remarkable players in the modern era. Who knows, maybe he can step it up a little and break into the top 100.

14.05.24 Introducing a New Metric for Baseball Analysis: TBA9 and TBO9

At ThreeAndTwo, we've developed a groundbreaking metric to better evaluate the effectiveness of pitchers and batters. Traditional statistics often focus on outcomes like runs scored or strikeouts, which can overlook the subtler aspects of the game. We believe that baseball is fundamentally about bases—how many a pitcher concedes and how many a batter gains. To this end, we've introduced two new metrics: Total Bases Allowed per 9 innings (TBA9) for pitchers and Total Bases Obtained per 9 innings (TBO9) for batters.

Pitching: Total Bases Allowed per 9 Innings (TBA9)

Definition:
Total Bases Allowed per 9 innings (TBA9) is an innovative baseball metric that provides a thorough evaluation of a pitcher's ability to restrict opposing batters' progress. Unlike traditional pitching statistics, TBA9 considers the quality of hits by including singles, doubles, triples, home runs, and walks to calculate the total bases a pitcher allows on average over a nine-inning game.

Formula:
TBA9 = ((Singles + 2 x Doubles + 3 x Triples + 4 x Home Runs + Walks) / Innings Pitched) x 9

Benefits:
This metric offers a detailed view by valuing each hit and walk based on the actual bases gained, providing a more refined analysis of a pitcher's performance. It's especially useful for comparing pitchers with different styles and in various environments, emphasizing their ability to limit extra-base hits and control the pace of the game. In an era where baseball analytics are crucial, TBA9 emerges as an essential tool for managers, players, and fans seeking deeper insights into pitching efficiency and effectiveness.

Batting: Total Bases Obtained per 9 Innings (TBO9)

Definition:
Total Bases Obtained per 9 innings (TBO9) is an advanced baseball metric that offers a comprehensive measure of a batter's ability to accumulate bases. Unlike conventional batting statistics, TBO9 evaluates the quality of hits by counting singles, doubles, triples, and home runs separately, along with walks and stolen bases, to determine the total bases a batter secures on average over a nine-inning game.

Formula:
TBO9 = ((Singles + 2 x Doubles + 3 x Triples + 4 x Home Runs + Walks + Stolen Bases) / Plate Appearances) x 9

Benefits:
This metric provides a nuanced perspective by assigning value to each hit and walk based on the actual bases achieved, offering a more in-depth analysis of a batter's performance.

Importance of Bases Over Outcomes

We recognized that relying on traditional metrics such as runs scored or strikeouts does not fully capture the skills of batters and pitchers. Baseball is fundamentally about bases—those given up by pitchers and those gained by batters. By focusing on these aspects, TBA9 and TBO9 provide a clearer picture of a player's true effectiveness.

From these metrics, we can generate lists of the best batters and pitchers, providing valuable insights for team strategies and player evaluations.

Predictive Analysis and Postseason Strategy

Baseball's competitive nature often leads to a 50-50 split, especially in the postseason where every game can feel like a lottery. Our analysis suggests that having a core of four good pitchers is crucial, as batters can vary in form. To identify the best pitching rotations for a seven-match series in the postseason, we calculated the combined TBA9 for the top 4 pitchers in innings pitched (IP) for each team.

Starting Pitching TBA9 (Top 4 SPs Per Team):

Team	TBA9
PHI	42.25
CHC	43.74
ATL	49.04
SEA	50.14
LAD	52.70
BAL	53.54
MIL	54.40
NYY	58.39
CLE	72.34

These results highlight the teams with the most effective pitching rotations, making them likely candidates for postseason success. By focusing on TBA9, teams can better prepare for the rigors of playoff baseball, where pitching depth often makes the difference between advancing and going home.

At ThreeAndTwo, we're excited about the potential of TBA9 and TBO9 to revolutionize baseball analysis, offering deeper insights and helping teams build strategies that lead to success on the field.

17.04.24 PROJECTIONS v REALITY

Team Performance Insights

Surpassing Expectations
Cleveland Guardians lead the positive differential with a +34.46, showcasing robust performance improvements over expectations. Josh Naylor's outstanding offensive stats have been a key factor in their success, reflecting in his .328 batting average and notable power hitting.
Kansas City Royals top the list with a remarkable +44.81 differential. Bobby Witt Jr. has been pivotal in this surge, contributing both at bat and in the field. His stats include a .314 batting average and a slugging percentage that highlights his dual-threat capability.
New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox have also performed notably well, with differentials of +32.37 and +20.70, respectively. The Yankees have seen substantial contributions from players like Logan O'Hoppe and Giancarlo Stanton, each adding significant value to the team's offensive prowess.

Below Expectations
Houston Astros face the most significant drop with a -45.05 differential. Despite high expectations, their performance has been hampered by injuries and underperformance in critical games.
Miami Marlins also struggle significantly, holding the lowest differential at -47.49. Their season has been characterized by weak pitching and a lack of offensive consistency, which has led to their poor showing in the standings.

Standout Players
Several players have made significant impacts on their teams, often exceeding individual expectations:
Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Angels) continues to amaze with a .341 batting average and excellent slugging, maintaining his status as one of the top hitters in the league.
William Contreras (Milwaukee Brewers) has been another standout, especially impressive with a batting average of .375 and an OPS over 1.000, making him one of the leading hitters this season.
Spencer Steer of the Cincinnati Reds has emerged as a key player, with a batting average of .317 and solid power numbers, contributing significantly to the Reds' overall performance.

Team Developments and Strategies
The Cincinnati Reds show promising growth with a slew of young talents like Elly De La Cruz and additions such as Frankie Montas. Their development strategy focuses on nurturing these young players while strengthening their pitching rotation to solidify their competitive status.
Los Angeles Angels, while struggling with team consistency, benefit immensely from the individual performances of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. Their strategy seems to revolve around building around these core players while trying to find the right support to turn games into wins.

Analysis of Underperforming Teams
Houston Astros' dramatic fall can be attributed to a series of injuries to key players and a general lack of depth in their pitching rotation, which has failed to live up to the previous years' standards.
Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers have also seen declines, with issues ranging from inconsistent batting to struggles in closing games effectively.

Emerging Trends
Youth Movement: Teams like the Reds and Royals are benefiting from their investment in young, dynamic players who are beginning to make their mark in the major leagues.
Pitching Woes: Teams struggling with pitching depth, like the Astros and Mariners, find it challenging to compete consistently, underscoring the perennial importance of strong pitching staffs in baseball.

Looking Forward
As the season progresses, it will be interesting to see if the high-performing teams can maintain their momentum and whether the underperformers can reverse their fortunes. The role of emerging players will be crucial, as will the strategic decisions made at the trade deadline.

16.03.24 NL EAST 2024 PREVIEW

The NL East is a real powerhouse division. With our favourite to win it all, the Atlanta Braves, being closely pursued by the Philadelphia Phillies who boast an experienced and powerful team that should be there or thereabouts come October. Following on the Phillies' heels are the New York Mets who are predicted to have an above-average season with 88 wins. The Miami Marlins had a strong year last year but might regress slightly with the Washington Nationals propping up the division.

The Braves are a very, very good team. Riding the wave of a surprising World Series title in 2021, the Braves have been on an upward trajectory, clinching 101 and 104 victories in the subsequent seasons. Yet, despite their regular-season dominance, they've hit a roadblock in the playoffs, twice stumbling in the NLDS against the Phillies. As we gear up for 2024, optimism surrounds Atlanta, positioned again as a top contender in the National League with our computer being slightly optimistic, predicting them winning 111 games.

At the heart of their offense, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Matt Olson stand as titanic figures, their MVP-caliber performances ensuring the Braves' scorecard remains robust. The Braves have a staggering 5 of the top 22 batters in the league according to RosterResource, led by Acuña Jr and Olson at 1 and 2 respectively. However, a word of warning, Acuña’s knee looks like it might be playing up again, and that could be a severe blow.

Pitching wise, the league’s best pitcher in Spencer Strider leads a formidable starting rotation with Max Fried, Charlie Morton, and new addition Chris Sale. The bullpen has seen its depth enhanced with Aaron Bummer and Reynaldo Lopez, setting the stage for a startlingly strong team.

Given the sheer talent on display, expect Atlanta to be a mainstay in the October chase, their sights firmly set on transcending past postseason disappointments of their league rivals.

Up against them and the Braves’ nemesis over the past couple of years in the postseason are the Philadelphia Phillies. With a raucous support, last year they stumbled at the NLCS hurdle against the Diamondbacks, missing out on back-to-back World Series’ appearances. If we are being honest, last year was probably their year. A settled team, home support, against a surprising underdog, the Phillies bottled it and lost.

However, the Phillies have been stirring up the postseason scene for the last couple of years and are expected to stay competitive in 2024. The dynamic duo of Bryce Harper and Trea Turner is at the forefront, powering one of the most formidable lineups in baseball, together with Kyle Schwarber leading off.

With the ever-impressive Zack Wheeler, fresh from signing a 3-year extension for over $120 million, together with Aaron Nola, the Phillies’ pitching is in good shape. The bullpen is strong enough but could do with a bit of work.

The Phillies have a good enough team to make the postseason again, and with their experience, I wouldn’t like to rule them out.

Then the New York Mets. After a season where they racked up 101 wins in 2022, the Mets made waves by adding not one, but two Hall of Fame-caliber pitchers in Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, alongside Kodai Senga, a standout pitcher from Japan taking his first steps in American baseball. Despite sky-high expectations, framing their season as World Series or nothing, the Mets found themselves out of contention early on, leading to the mid-season trades of Verlander and Scherzer.

In the wake of this recalibration, the Mets have opted for a more measured approach this offseason, making several strategic albeit less headline-grabbing signings like Harrison Bader, Luis Severino, and Joey Wendle. While there's undeniable talent in Queens, the uphill battle against powerhouses like Atlanta and Philadelphia for the crown of the National League East seems daunting. The landscape suggests a challenging path ahead for the Mets with Fangraphs having the Mets slumping to a 75-win season.

The Mets’ offense is led by Francisco Lindor, into his third year of his 10-year mega contract, together with Pete Alonso. Around them is solid if not spectacular. The Mets’ weak link is their pitching. Senga is injured to start the season and so they are left without a real ace to lead the pack. It will be a struggle to consistently win games. Apart from Senga, the Mets have a solid rotation withoutbeing spectacular.

Emerging as one of the unexpected delights of the 2023 season, the Miami Marlins made waves by clinching 84 victories and securing a postseason berth for only the second time since their triumphant World Series run in 2003. Yet, if they aim to stand toe-to-toe with powerhouses like Atlanta and Philadelphia, there's a path of improvement ahead.

Luiz Arraez continues to impress with his batting prowess, setting the bar high as an elite hitter. However, the Marlins' offensive success hinges significantly on Jazz Chisholm Jr. stepping up to fulfill his considerable potential. Furthermore, filling the void left by Jorge Soler's impressive 36-home run season is critical—his departure to the San Francisco Giants leaves a significant power gap, as no other Marlins player hit over 20 homers last year.

On the mound, the future looks bright with Eury Perez, who is pegged as a forthcoming ace, and Jesus Luzardo, who carries his own star quality. With Braxton Garrett injured, the Marlins pitching looks pretty light overall. Overall, the Marlins are a fairly balanced side but will struggle to make inroads into October, although they could sneak a wild card spot if things go their way. Fangraphs has the Marlins finishing in third with 84 wins, however, we think that it will be a slightly tougher season with a 76-86 record.

Propping up the division with a lowly predicted 61 wins are the Washington Nationals who are in the garage, for a rebuild. With just 2 batters in the top 100, and 2 starting pitchers as well, it will be a tough season. Last year a miserable season was also predicted but they were a little better and made it to 71 wins. They do have 2 pitchers in Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore who are young and will look to improve on good seasons last year. It is just difficult to see how they get enough runs on the board to be competitive. A 10-8 record in pre-season augurs well though that they can be better than hopeless.

So overall, the NL East will in all likelihood be dominated by Atlanta with the Phillies favourites for the wild card spot but the Mets will look to sneak in there as well.

21.02.24 AL CENTRAL 2024 PREVIEW

The Central Divisions in both the American League and the National League are a little bit in the doldrums. Unlike the AL East, there really isn’t too much to shout about. Both the Kansas City Royals and the Chicago White Sox will struggle this year, (the White Sox will really struggle), and the Twins should be clear to win the division. The Detroit Tigers might muster a challenge and they might even get a wild card spot. Some pundits also like what the Cleveland Guardians are doing, so whilst on paper it looks to be a fairly straightforward and mundane division, it could become a three way shootout. However, that is just for the division, and once the postseason gets rolling, whoever does make it from the AL Central, don’t expect them to hang around long.

Let’s start with the Minnesota Twins, outright favourites to win the division, and with a small chance of going far in the postseason. Reasons for Twins fans to be optimistic? Last year was a good year for the Twins. Improving significantly on previous recent efforts they won the division well clear of any challengers with 87 games. They had a good pitching staff led by Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray and good batters in Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. This year they should repeat last years’ success and win the division. If Correa and Buxton can stay fit and Royce Lewis continues his emergence as a star, they could be a force to be reckoned with. The Twins have lost Sonny Gray to the Cardinals but they have a decent starting rotation which should be more than enough to win the division. They are missing depth and aces to take them much further in the postseason though.

The Detroit Tigers are a cool team to watch out for. One of the youngest teams around, they had a decent last season ending up winning 81 and losing 81 games. This offseason they have looked to build by adding a few veterans to the lineup to support their youngsters. The Tigers haven’t gone crazy with the cheque book though, mainly relying on their depth of younger talent coming through. It could be an interesting season for the Tigers, if they can continue their upward trajectory with the younger players and the new signings of Mark Canha, Kenta Maeda, and Jack Flaherty make the impact that is expected of them. Look out for the Tigers moving up and if things work out, even challenging for the AL Central title.

The Cleveland Guardians are many people’s pick to take second spot in the division. We have the Tigers making a slightly bigger jump, although it is not unfeasible to imagine the Guardians making a leap. A solid if unspectacular team. Last year it managed to put some good stretches together but struggled for consistency. Their offence lacks home runs, finishing almost bottom of the pile in that regard last year, but they make up for it with stolen bases and base hits. Again, their pitching is solid if unspectacular. Led by Shane Bieber with an ERA of 3.73 being the pick of the bunch.

The Kansas City Royals are an interesting team. Many are picking the Royals to surprise quite a few people. We don’t have them doing very much this year though. The big news for the Royals this offseason was the signing of 23 year old Bobby Witt Jr. to a superstar 11 year $288 million contract. The rest of their team has experience (another way of saying they’re on the older side of things and don’t add up to too much. A lot will depend on Bobby if this team is to defy expectations. Pitching wise it will be interesting to see if young Cole Ragans can build on last year but otherwise it will be a struggle. The signing of Witt Jr. to a big deal shows intent, but as to what, it is not so clear. Don’t expect the Royals to surprise.

Propping up this sorry state of affairs in the AL Central is a team which is in a select group of 4 of having their predicted chances of winning the World Series come out at 0.00%. They are the Chicago White Sox. Last year they won just 61 games and it's not looking prettier this time around. Luis Robert Jr is the likely pick of the batters after 38 home runs last year. Around him Andrew Vaughn might offer support but for the rest, good times will be thin on the ground. Dylan Cease could be a star pitcher so it will be interesting to see his progression. However, again, the White Sox need a big rebuild in this department as well.

Overall, the AL Central looks like a straightforward win for the Minnesota Twins, however if the Tigers and Guardians can improve slightly as a team, we could have a three way contest.

16.02.24 AL EAST 2024 PREVIEW

The AL East is a fascinating division, one of the toughest in either league. We have the Orioles coming out on top but it will be close, with the Rays, Blue Jays and Yankees all in with a shout.

The New York Yankees, have got many pundits rather excited, as they pick the Yankees as the “best of the rest” behind the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers, with a real shot of making the World Series. They need to bounce back after a poor season last year. The Yankees were hampered by injuries and they did not make the postseason for the first time in quite a while. Well, we also see them in the hunt with a projected 92 wins, but in a terribly competitive division. The Yankees have made quite a splash in the offseason, signing Juan Soto, a deal which has been seen in many quarters as a complete gamechanger, a batter of the highest quality. However, they need more pitchers, despite the signing of Carlos Stroman.

If, and it's a big if, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton can stay fit, then with Soto they have a line up to hurt anybody, but it is a big ask.

Toronto's Blue Jays will certainly be in the mix come October time. Wth a projection of 94 wins the Blue Jays are primed to outshine their last season's performance. Their starting rotation is brimming with talent that's more than just reliable—it's deep. Alek Manoah, despite last year's struggles, could bounce back strongly, with many tipping him to do so. With pitchers like Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassit, and Yusei Kikuchi, the Jays have the artillery to remain formidable contenders through the long season. On the batting front, their cadre of burgeoning stars has matured by a season, which bodes well for their development trajectory. Newly signed veteran Justin Turner brings stability and experience to the infield. Additionally, the under-the-radar acquisition of Isiah Kiner-Falefa could prove to be more than useful, giving Toronto a versatile asset across the diamond.

The Baltimore Orioles enjoyed a standout 2023 season, finishing first in the AL East with a record of 101 wins and 61 losses. This strong performance marked their best showing in the 21st century and was their first division win since 2014. The team’s success was a significant turnaround from their previous years, indicating a resurgence of the franchise, which for many years had been languishing in the doldrums. Their batting average was ranked 10th in the league at .255, and they were 7th in earned run average (ERA) at 3.89, reflecting a balanced strength in both offence and pitching. Despite their brilliant season and their top seed ranking in the playoffs, they were no match for the Texas Rangers who swept them 3-0.

They have some excellent and really exciting breakout starts in Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson and a robust pitching rotation, however, the game changer could be the signing of star pitcher, Corbin Burnes from the Brewers. It is hard to predict that the Orioles will have another 101 winning game season, but we have them topping the division with around 99 wins. Add to this potent mix the fact that the Orioles have just been sold for around $1.7 billion to a new ownership group led by David Rubenstein, a Baltimore native and co-founder of the private equity firm The Carlyle Group. He is known as a lifelong fan of the team and has expressed his commitment to building upon the recent success of the Orioles and aiming to bring a World Series trophy back to Baltimore. Whilst they may fall short again in the postseason, don’t be surprised if the Orioles are fighting it out for the World Series come October.

Another strong candidate in a ridiculously strong division is perennial overachievers, Tampa Bay. With a 95-win projection, they continue to defy expectations. Their innovative approach to the game—emphasising versatility and analytics—has brought repeated success. THis post season has been marked by significant transfers as star ace Tyler Glasnow and star batter Manuel Margot have gone to the Dodgers in exchange for Jonny DeLuca and pitcher Ryan Pepiot. It will be fascinating to see how they go, and they will be right in the mix for a Wild Card Spot if not the division itself.

The Boston Red Sox, projected at 65 wins, face a tough challenge, navigating through a season of change and adaptation. While not destined for the bottom of the standings, their current roster doesn't quite scream AL East champions. The offseason was a carousel of intriguing decisions, the headline being the swap of Chris Sale for Atlanta's budding star, Vaughn Grissom. Grissom is expected to become a mainstay at second base, bringing a fresh spark to the infield.

Lucas Giolito, once a premier pitcher, has joined the ranks, with Boston betting on his return to form. His arm adds a veteran presence to the pitching staff, with an eye towards bolstering his value in the market. Tyler O'Neill, the athletic outfielder with a wealth of potential, was another key acquisition from St. Louis. The Red Sox faithful will be eager to see if these moves translate to an on-field resurgence as the team seeks to reestablish itself as a force in the notoriously tough AL East.

07.02.24 What's going on at the Dodgers?

There has been quite a bit going on in post season and spring training is just about to get under way with opening day only 50 or so days away. We take a look at one of the teams which has been dominating the pre-season news thus far and will be, in many people's eyes, the favourite to win the World Series - The Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Dodgers have made the biggest splash by some distance this pre-season, and has committed to paying out over a billion dollars in wages in order to assemble a team of superstars capable of delivering the World Series once again, which they haven't won in a full 162 game season since 1988. They have signed the most talented player in baseball since Babe Ruth in Shohei Ohtani from crosstown rivals, Los Angeles Angels and have promised him over $700 million for the privilege during the course of the next 20 years (10 of which Ohtani is contracted to play for them).

In addition they have signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a $325 million 12 year contract from Japan. Many baseball experts consider Yamamoto to be the best pitcher in the world and his stats in Japan over the last 6 years have been absurdly good. Together with starting pitchers, James Paxton and Tyler Glasnow signed to bolster a starting rotation which was a glaring weakness last year, it looks like the Dodgers are in good shape in both departments. For good measure they have also re-signed Clayton Kershaw, however he won't be available pitch until around the middle of the season. Glasnow is particular, if he stays fit, could be a real superstar ace.

With Teoscar Hernandez signed from the Mariners to support their batting, and with an opening three in the batting lineup of Betts, Ohtani and Freeman, people are getting very excited. It seems highly likely that they will better their 100 wins of last year. However, as of the end of the 2023 season, we have the Rangers(AL), Phillies(NL) and Braves(NL) ranked ahead of them (See the full rankings here).

Add in the strengths of the Orioles, Rays and Diamondbacks, and a World Series victory suddenly becomes a different prospect. Baseball is a funny nut to crack, you can assemble the greatest team, do everything right, but the foibles of the sport mean that every game in postseason will always be a small deviation (if any) away from 50/50 as to who is going to win. So whilst Dodgers fans can be confident of another strong season, and probably topping their division, don't be surprised if they get no further than the Divisional series again and come up against a Phillies team who have kept the band together for another crack, or the Braves in the conference series who are another 100+ winning team and come up short. However, don't be surprised if a Betts, Ohtani and Freeman offense with a Glasnow, Paxton and Kershaw starting rotation come October sweep all aside on their way to the World Series.

ThreeAndTwo Baseball