What Happened to Our $23 Million World Series Candidates
| Name | Team | Age | PA | TBO9 | HR | AVG | Salary | FanGraphs Worth | Estimated Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | PIT | 37 | 515 | 2.14 | 20 | 0.232 | $5,000,000 | $3,900,000 | $3,000,000 |
| Whit Merrifield | - - - | 35 | 335 | 1.94 | 4 | 0.222 | $740,000 | $3,600,000 | $1,500,000 |
| Jose Iglesias | NYM | 34 | 291 | 2.15 | 4 | 0.337 | $1,500,000 | $20,300,000 | $4,000,000 |
| Gio Urshela | - - - | 32 | 461 | 1.75 | 9 | 0.25 | $740,000 | $5,600,000 | $1,500,000 |
| Rob Refsnyder | BOS | 33 | 307 | 2.32 | 11 | 0.283 | $1,850,000 | $9,700,000 | $2,500,000 |
| Kevin Pillar | - - - | 35 | 314 | 1.94 | 8 | 0.229 | $1,000,000 | $4,400,000 | $1,500,000 |
| Randal Grichuk | ARI | 32 | 279 | 2.49 | 12 | 0.291 | $1,500,000 | $12,300,000 | $3,500,000 |
| Jacob Stallings | COL | 34 | 281 | 2.20 | 9 | 0.263 | $1,500,000 | $7,500,000 | $2,500,000 |
| Ryan O'Hearn | BAL | 30 | 494 | 2.17 | 15 | 0.264 | $3,500,000 | $13,500,000 | $3,500,000 |
| Total | 19.10 | $17,830,000 | $80,800,000 | $23,500,000 | |||||
A few months ago, we set out on an ambitious challenge: build a competitive MLB team on a $23 million budget. Read the full article here.
We identified undervalued free agents with solid Total Bases Obtained per 9 innings (TBO9) to form a cost-effective lineup. Our aim was simple—assemble a squad that could match the offensive firepower of the Dodgers while spending less than the Oakland A’s 2024 payroll. So, what happened to the players we scouted? Did they find homes with other teams? Did their market values match our projections? Here’s the breakdown.
Jacob Stallings, in our plan, offered defensive reliability and a TBO9 of 2.20. We projected a contract of $2 to $3 million for him. Stallings signed a 1-year deal with the Colorado Rockies for $2.5 million, fitting perfectly within our estimate.
Ryan O'Hearn brought power potential with a TBO9 of 2.17 and 15 home runs. We predicted he would land a $3.5 million deal. The Baltimore Orioles retained him with a 1-year, $3.5 million contract, hitting our estimate exactly.
Whit Merrifield was a versatile veteran whose declining stats gave us reason to believe he could be a budget-friendly pickup at $1 to $2 million. Surprisingly, Merrifield remains a free agent as of now. Teams may be holding off due to his low .222 average in 2024.
José Iglesias was a key part of our strategy with a TBO9 of 2.15 and an impressive .337 batting average. We estimated he could earn $3 to $5 million. Iglesias signed with the New York Mets for $1.5 million, significantly lower than expected.
Gio Urshela’s defense and versatility made him a perfect budget option. We estimated $1 to $2 million for him. The Oakland Athletics signed him for $2.15 million, slightly above our projection but still a bargain.
Rob Refsnyder turned heads with a TBO9 of 2.32 and versatility, making him a standout value pick. We projected a $2 to $3 million contract. Refsnyder signed a 1-year, $1.85 million deal with the Boston Red Sox—just under our estimate.
Kevin Pillar, known for his defense, seemed like a perfect low-cost veteran option at $1 to $2 million. However, Pillar remains unsigned, though his skillset could still attract interest as spring training nears.
Randal Grichuk’s 2.49 TBO9 made him one of the most productive hitters we identified. We predicted a contract around $3 to $4 million. The Arizona Diamondbacks locked him in with a 1-year, $5 million contract, exceeding our estimate but justified by his strong 2024 season.
Andrew McCutchen, a veteran leader, was projected to command $5 million, which aligned with his consistent offensive contributions. The Pittsburgh Pirates brought him back on a 1-year, $5 million contract, matching our estimate.
Some players were left off our final list, but here’s what happened to them. Kyle Higashioka signed a 1-year, $2.18 million deal with the San Diego Padres. Christian Walker secured a 2-year, $22 million extension with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Jorge Polanco landed a 1-year, $10.5 million deal with the Seattle Mariners. Willy Adames signed a 1-year, $12.25 million contract with the Milwaukee Brewers. Michael Conforto re-signed with the San Francisco Giants for $18 million. Marcell Ozuna was extended by the Atlanta Braves on a $16 million deal.
Our projected budget of $23.5 million ended up being remarkably accurate. The players we identified collectively signed contracts worth around $20.5 million, keeping us well within budget. While a few players secured slightly higher deals than anticipated, others—like José Iglesias—signed for much less, balancing the overall payroll.
This exercise shows that smart, data-driven scouting can uncover tremendous value in free agency. By focusing on underappreciated contributors with high TBO9 metrics, a small-market team could assemble a competitive lineup without spending like the Yankees or Dodgers. With spring training around the corner, it’ll be exciting to see how these players perform in their new roles. Next, we’ll look at how to build a cost-effective pitching staff to complement this lineup. Stay tuned!