ThreeAndTwo Baseball

14.05.24 Introducing a New Metric for Baseball Analysis: TBA9 and TBO9

At ThreeAndTwo, we've developed a groundbreaking metric to better evaluate the effectiveness of pitchers and batters. Traditional statistics often focus on outcomes like runs scored or strikeouts, which can overlook the subtler aspects of the game. We believe that baseball is fundamentally about bases—how many a pitcher concedes and how many a batter gains. To this end, we've introduced two new metrics: Total Bases Allowed per 9 innings (TBA9) for pitchers and Total Bases Obtained per 9 innings (TBO9) for batters.

Pitching: Total Bases Allowed per 9 Innings (TBA9)

Definition:
Total Bases Allowed per 9 innings (TBA9) is an innovative baseball metric that provides a thorough evaluation of a pitcher's ability to restrict opposing batters' progress. Unlike traditional pitching statistics, TBA9 considers the quality of hits by including singles, doubles, triples, home runs, and walks to calculate the total bases a pitcher allows on average over a nine-inning game.

Formula:
TBA9 = ((Singles + 2 x Doubles + 3 x Triples + 4 x Home Runs + Walks) / Innings Pitched) x 9

Benefits:
This metric offers a detailed view by valuing each hit and walk based on the actual bases gained, providing a more refined analysis of a pitcher's performance. It's especially useful for comparing pitchers with different styles and in various environments, emphasizing their ability to limit extra-base hits and control the pace of the game. In an era where baseball analytics are crucial, TBA9 emerges as an essential tool for managers, players, and fans seeking deeper insights into pitching efficiency and effectiveness.

Batting: Total Bases Obtained per 9 Innings (TBO9)

Definition:
Total Bases Obtained per 9 innings (TBO9) is an advanced baseball metric that offers a comprehensive measure of a batter's ability to accumulate bases. Unlike conventional batting statistics, TBO9 evaluates the quality of hits by counting singles, doubles, triples, and home runs separately, along with walks and stolen bases, to determine the total bases a batter secures on average over a nine-inning game.

Formula:
TBO9 = ((Singles + 2 x Doubles + 3 x Triples + 4 x Home Runs + Walks + Stolen Bases) / Plate Appearances) x 9

Benefits:
This metric provides a nuanced perspective by assigning value to each hit and walk based on the actual bases achieved, offering a more in-depth analysis of a batter's performance.

Importance of Bases Over Outcomes

We recognized that relying on traditional metrics such as runs scored or strikeouts does not fully capture the skills of batters and pitchers. Baseball is fundamentally about bases—those given up by pitchers and those gained by batters. By focusing on these aspects, TBA9 and TBO9 provide a clearer picture of a player's true effectiveness.

From these metrics, we can generate lists of the best batters and pitchers, providing valuable insights for team strategies and player evaluations.

Predictive Analysis and Postseason Strategy

Baseball's competitive nature often leads to a 50-50 split, especially in the postseason where every game can feel like a lottery. Our analysis suggests that having a core of four good pitchers is crucial, as batters can vary in form. To identify the best pitching rotations for a seven-match series in the postseason, we calculated the combined TBA9 for the top 4 pitchers in innings pitched (IP) for each team.

Starting Pitching TBA9 (Top 4 SPs Per Team):

These results highlight the teams with the most effective pitching rotations, making them likely candidates for postseason success. By focusing on TBA9, teams can better prepare for the rigors of playoff baseball, where pitching depth often makes the difference between advancing and going home.

At ThreeAndTwo, we're excited about the potential of TBA9 and TBO9 to revolutionize baseball analysis, offering deeper insights and helping teams build strategies that lead to success on the field.