Our friends over at Baseball4Cast have been busy in the postseason firing up the algorithm and the results are in! So what are the big stories?

The divisional winners will be the Twins, Rays and Rangers in the American League, and the Brewers, Phillies and Diamondbacks in the National League.

But more interestingly, is calculating who will be going to the postseason and have a real chance of success. What we need is another system for ranking the teams taking into account the strength of their schedule. Over at Baseball4Cast they have identified a clear point of difference for the success of a team in the postseason. As the chances of winning any given baseball game between two teams is little more than 50-50, (hence so many games in a season to identify the stronger teams), it will always be in your interest to miss the first round of the postseason against the wildcard teams. Therefore, what is important to your success is your seeding for the postseason, rather than simply where you finish in your division.

The two division winners with the best record in each league receive byes to the Division Series. The third place division winner and the three wild card teams are each seeded from three to six in order of their regular season record. Therefore, they have identified the teams in each league with the highest chances of finishing as the 2 division winners with the best record (seeds 1 - 2) and the other 4 teams from each league who will make the postseason (seeds 3 - 6).



From this analysis the Rangers and the Rays are most likely to be seeds 1 and 2 for the American League and the Phillies and the Diamondbacks in the National League. Interestingly the Dodgers, although predicted to finish second in their division are the team most likely to challenge the Diamondbacks for that second seeding, showing the real strength of the National League West. Conversely, the Brewers who are predicted to win the National League Central Division have a tough battle to go far in the postseason.