Baseball’s Problem: How Do We Value Players?
Baseball has a problem—a big one. How do we properly value players in a game that has gone through a seismic statistical revolution? Once upon a time, scouts leaned against fences, chewing tobacco, and muttering, “I like that pop,” with little clarity on what "pop" actually meant. Then came Moneyball, where OBP became the holy grail. From there, we graduated to wOBA, a stat so intricate it feels like you need a Ph.D. in mathematics to grasp its depths.
But baseball is a simple game, isn’t it? It’s a battle of total bases. Your team adds them up; the other team does the same. Whoever gets more wins. Somewhere along the way, that fundamental truth got lost. Now, there’s a stat that cuts through the noise: TBO9 (Total Bases per Game). No formulas. No weights you can’t explain. Just a simple question: How much does a player produce in each game?
And the results? They’re fascinating. TBO9 exposes the hidden gems, the overvalued stars, and those who might just be the league's most efficient producers. Let’s dig into it, using the top 100 qualified hitters from 2021 to 2024, and see what happens when we throw OPS and even wOBA out the window.
What Is TBO9?
At its core, TBO9 asks: how many total bases does a player produce per game? Unlike OPS, which can skew toward sluggers, or wOBA, which relies on complex formulas, TBO9 is beautifully straightforward.
Here’s how it works:
- Count every base accumulated—whether by hit, walk, stolen base, or even intentional walk.
- Single = 1 base
- Double = 2 bases
- Triple = 3 bases
- Home run = 4 bases
- Walk = 1 base
- Stolen base = 1 base
- Divide by total plate appearances to get a per-PA rate.
- Multiply by 4.5 (average PA per game) to estimate a player’s base production per game.
The beauty of TBO9 is its simplicity. It doesn’t favor just sluggers or walkers—it values every contribution. Home runs? Great. Stolen bases? Love ’em. A gap double? Count it. Let’s see how these rankings shake out.
The Overvalued and Undervalued Players: TBO9 vs. OPS
The top four players remain the same across OPS and TBO9—Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Yordan Alvarez, and Mike Trout. These guys are generational talents, no matter how you slice it. But after them? TBO9 starts to tell a different story.
The Big Risers
- Byron Buxton (+18 spots): When Buxton is on the field, he’s electric. TBO9 rewards his combination of home-run power, speed on the basepaths, and dynamic game-to-game impact. His climb from #23 in OPS to #5 in TBO9 screams efficiency.
- Kyle Schwarber (+46 spots): Schwarber might be polarizing—his batting average is low, and his defense is suspect—but TBO9 highlights his knack for producing total bases in bunches. Walks, home runs, and timely hits push him from obscurity to relevance.
- Adolis García (+53 spots): Long overlooked as a “three-true-outcomes” player, García’s all-around contribution becomes undeniable in TBO9. Power, speed, and aggression add up.
- Nathaniel Lowe (+58 spots): Quietly consistent, Lowe embodies the TBO9 philosophy of steady productivity. His mix of singles, doubles, and walks gets the job done.
- Edmundo Sosa (+108 spots): Sosa’s massive leap isn’t about flash—he simply makes the most of every opportunity, proving that TBO9 rewards the unheralded.
The Fallers
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (-11 spots): A superstar by every metric, Acuña’s drop reflects the limits of his game-to-game efficiency. His peaks are spectacular, but TBO9 values consistency, and Acuña occasionally goes quiet.
- Mookie Betts (-7 spots): Betts is one of the most complete players in the game, but TBO9 doesn’t reward versatility. His OBP-heavy profile takes a slight hit.
- Xander Bogaerts (-27 spots): A classic high-average hitter, Bogaerts loses ground in a metric that prioritizes extra-base hits and stolen bases.
- Salvador Perez (-33 spots): The Royals’ slugger sees a significant drop, as TBO9 reveals that his game relies more on power surges than consistent production.
- Josh Bell (-46 spots): Bell’s ability to draw walks and hit for moderate power doesn’t translate as well to TBO9’s output-focused model.
Big Surprises in TBO9
Willson Contreras (+51 spots): The Cardinals’ catcher rises dramatically, showing his value as a well-rounded offensive threat. Walks, power, and even a little speed help him shine in TBO9.
Teoscar Hernández (+30 spots): Known for his power, Hernández gains recognition for his ability to accumulate total bases consistently, moving from the middle of the OPS rankings to the top 20 in TBO9.
TJ Friedl (+117 spots): Who? Friedl explodes into relevance, proving that even lesser-known players can dominate a stat built around raw efficiency.
Brendan Donovan (+81 spots): Another unheralded player who thrives in TBO9, Donovan’s game is a perfect mix of speed, power, and smart hitting.
What Does This Mean for GMs?
Baseball’s front offices live and die by efficiency. TBO9 doesn’t just provide another number to throw into the mix—it clarifies which players actually produce. Take Byron Buxton, for instance: his ranking tells us that when he’s healthy, he’s a top-5 player in the game. Or Kyle Schwarber, whose contributions might not show up in traditional stats but make him invaluable in terms of output.
On the flip side, players like Josh Bell or Salvador Perez might need a closer look. Are they being overvalued based on metrics that don’t reflect their true impact?
The Final Word
Baseball has always been about accumulating bases—TBO9 just reminds us of that simple truth. In a sport drowning in data, this metric offers clarity. It doesn’t ask “what kind of player” someone is—it asks, “what does he do?” And for fans, analysts, and GMs alike, that’s the question that matters most.
So next time you’re evaluating a hitter, forget the formulas. Forget the noise. Just ask: how productive is this guy, really? Because in baseball, the bases tell the whole story.
OPS to TBO9 Comparison
| OPS | TBO9 | Rank Change OPS to TBO9 |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | Aaron Judge | 0 |
| Shohei Ohtani | Shohei Ohtani | 0 |
| Yordan Alvarez | Yordan Alvarez | 0 |
| Mike Trout | Mike Trout | 0 |
| Juan Soto | Byron Buxton | +18 |
| Bryce Harper | Rafael Devers | +8 |
| Freddie Freeman | Corey Seager | +5 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | Jose Ramirez | +7 |
| Mookie Betts | Bryce Harper | -3 |
| Kyle Tucker | Bobby Witt Jr. | +15 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Austin Riley | +5 |
| Corey Seager | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | -1 |
| Matt Olson | Freddie Freeman | -6 |
| Rafael Devers | Fernando Tatis Jr. | +4 |
| Jose Ramirez | Kyle Tucker | -5 |
| Austin Riley | Mookie Betts | -7 |
| Jose Altuve | Pete Alonso | +10 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | Matt Olson | -5 |
| Gunnar Henderson | Ronald Acuna Jr. | -11 |
| Kyle Schwarber | Salvador Perez | +46 |
| Ketel Marte | Jake Burger | +41 |
| Brandon Belt | Brent Rooker | +4 |
| Byron Buxton | Luis Robert Jr. | +25 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | Teoscar Hernandez | +19 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Yainer Diaz | +31 |
| Brent Rooker | Trea Turner | +4 |
| Pete Alonso | Gunnar Henderson | -8 |
| Manny Machado | Manny Machado | 0 |
| Marcell Ozuna | C.J. Cron | +8 |
| Trea Turner | Jose Altuve | -13 |
| Seiya Suzuki | Marcell Ozuna | -2 |
| Bryan Reynolds | Michael Harris II | +21 |
| William Contreras | Ketel Marte | -12 |
| J.D. Martinez | Julio Rodriguez | +12 |
| Carlos Correa | J.D. Martinez | -1 |
| Joc Pederson | Nick Castellanos | +25 |
| C.J. Cron | Tyler O'Neill | +4 |
| Willson Contreras | Luke Raley | +51 |
| Joey Votto | Bryan Reynolds | -7 |
| Yandy Diaz | Nolan Arenado | +9 |