Yankees vs Dodgers World Series Matchup Analysis

Matchup Analysis
Overall: Yankees have the edge of the starters, but the Dodgers' bullpen shows greater strength and depth

World Series Preview: Yankees vs. Dodgers Pitching Matchups

As we gear up for this year's World Series, the classic rivalry between the New York Yankees and the Los Angeles Dodgers takes center stage. While baseball fans love a good pitching duel, this series might not provide many of those, with both teams featuring middle-of-the-pack rotations and bullpens that will likely carry a heavy load. It’s been a season dominated by offense, as reflected in the rankings of the pitchers we’ll see on the mound.

Let's break down the probable starters and assess their chances, while keeping in mind that we’re unlikely to see anyone getting beyond the 6th inning. That early hook has become a staple of postseason baseball as managers lean on their relievers like never before.

Game 1: Gerrit Cole (NYY) vs. Jack Flaherty (LAD)

This should be the premier pitching matchup, and on paper, the Yankees have a clear advantage. Gerrit Cole, despite his rank of 123 with a TBA9 of 13.26, has been a force all season. Don’t let the rank fool you—he’s an ace, a perennial Cy Young candidate, and the Yankees will look to him to set the tone for the series. Cole is as reliable as they come, and if anyone is going to make it into the 7th inning, it’s him.

Jack Flaherty, on the other hand, has had an up-and-down season. Ranked 288 with a TBA9 of 16.01, he’s had moments of brilliance, like Game 1 of the NLCS, but struggled when asked to pitch on short rest. If the Dodgers get the good version of Flaherty, they can keep pace with Cole. But if Flaherty falters early, the bullpen will need to step in, and we know how that’s gone this year.

Edge: Yankees

Game 2: Carlos Rodón (NYY) vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD)

This one is a bit trickier. Carlos Rodón has been a reliable arm for the Yankees, but his rank of 276 and TBA9 of 15.79 show that he’s far from dominant. He’s prone to inconsistency, and it’s been a season of highs and lows for him.

The Dodgers counter with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has emerged as their true ace. Ranked 68 with a TBA9 of 12.10, Yamamoto’s control and command have been impressive all season. He’s been a breath of fresh air for the Dodgers, and in a game where the starters matter, this is where the Dodgers might gain an edge.

Edge: Dodgers

Game 3: Clarke Schmidt (NYY) vs. Walker Buehler (LAD)

Now we’re getting into some more volatile matchups. Clarke Schmidt is another solid but unspectacular arm for the Yankees. His rank of 118 and TBA9 of 13.22 suggest he’s steady but not someone you’d trust to keep a potent Dodgers lineup at bay for long.

The Dodgers will go with Walker Buehler, whose rank of 386 and TBA9 of 19.77 show just how much he’s struggled. While Buehler has the potential for electric stuff, injuries and inconsistency have plagued him all season. If the Yankees' bats can take advantage early, the Dodgers could find themselves turning to the bullpen by the 4th inning.

Edge: Yankees

Game 4: Luis Gil (NYY) vs. Ben Casparius (LAD)

This is where things get murky, and both teams will likely turn to the bullpen early. Luis Gil for the Yankees has a TBA9 of 13.99, and while he’s been serviceable, this isn’t a pitcher who inspires much confidence.

The Dodgers will likely have a bullpen game here, with Ben Casparius potentially starting things off. His TBA9 of 16.29 isn’t exactly what you want to see in a Game 4 situation, but this is modern baseball—get through the first few innings, and then it’s a parade of relievers.

Edge: Yankees (barely)

Starting Pitching - Yankees

Game	Rank	Pitcher	TBA9
Game 1	123	Gerrit Cole	13.26
Game 2	276	Carlos Rodón	15.79
Game 3	118	Clarke Schmidt	13.22
Game 4	171	Luis Gil	13.99

Starting Pitching - Los Angeles Dodgers

Game	Rank	Pitcher	TBA9
Game 1	288	Jack Flaherty	16.01
Game 2	68	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	12.10
Game 3	386	Walker Buehler	19.77
Game 4	--	Ben Casparius (Bullpen game)	--

The Bullpen Factor

Let’s face it: This series is going to come down to the bullpens, and both teams have their work cut out for them. The Yankees’ bullpen, with an average TBA9 of 13.51 (total: 108.07), has been solid but unspectacular. Luke Weaver, Clay Holmes, and Tim Hill provide some stability, but there are enough question marks, like Marcus Stroman and Tim Mayza, that the Yankees could be in trouble if their starters falter.

The Dodgers’ bullpen, on the other hand, looks slightly better on paper. With an average TBA9 of 12.58 for their top 8 relievers (total: 100.61), they seem to have the edge here. Blake Treinen, Michael Kopech, and Ryan Brasier have been bright spots, and even though guys like Edgardo Henriquez and Anthony Banda have been shaky, the Dodgers' bullpen has the depth to carry them through the later innings.

Bullpen Edge: Dodgers

The Final Word

If you’re a fan of traditional pitching duels, this series might not be for you. We’re seeing less of pitchers going deep into games, and more reliance on bullpens that have been taxed all season. The 5-day break before the World Series might help, but don’t expect a lot of complete games.

The Yankees, with Gerrit Cole leading the way, have the edge in starting pitching. But don’t sleep on the Dodgers’ bullpen, which could turn the tide in the later innings. Both teams have had up-and-down seasons on the mound, but this series will likely be decided by which offense can capitalize when the starters get an early hook.

Yankees Bullpen

Rank	Pitcher	TBA9
50	Luke Weaver	11.57
137	Clay Holmes	13.43
152	Tommy Kahnle	13.65
108	Jake Cousins	13.03
23	Tim Hill	10.43
48	Mark Leiter Jr.	11.47
372	Tim Mayza	17.91
322	Marcus Stroman	16.58

Average: 13.51 | Total: 108.07

Dodgers Bullpen

Rank	Pitcher	TBA9
46	Blake Treinen	11.38
5	Michael Kopech	8.25
157	Evan Phillips	13.78
146	Daniel Hudson	13.57
179	Anthony Banda	14.09
51	Ryan Brasier	11.57
83	Brent Honeywell	12.58
??	Edgardo Henriquez	22.68
??	Ben Casparius	16.29
256	Landon Knack	15.39

Average: 13.96 | Average (top 8): 12.58 | Total (top 8): 100.61