After 162 games the bracket is set and October’s traffic plan is finally clear. Milwaukee finished with the best record in baseball, Toronto took the AL East on the last day, and a frantic Sunday pushed Cincinnati into the field as the final NL Wild Card.
American League overview
Division winners: Blue Jays (94–68), Mariners (90–72), Guardians (88–74). New York and Boston join as Wild Cards alongside Detroit. The two byes go to Toronto and Seattle; Cleveland opens at home in the Wild Card Series. This is the most balanced AL in years: Toronto’s lineup depth earned the top seed, Seattle arrive with run prevention and power, and Cleveland’s pitching-and-glove model travels in October.
National League overview
Division winners: Brewers (97–65), Phillies (96–66), Dodgers (93–69). The Cubs and Padres are in as Wild Cards, and the Reds grabbed the sixth seed on the final day while the Mets slipped out. Milwaukee and Philadelphia take the byes; Los Angeles start at home. The NL field is familiar, but the route is not: the Brewers leaned on elite run prevention, Philadelphia slugged and shoved again, and the Dodgers steadied late.
Wild Card Series matchups (best of three, all games at the higher seed; series start Tuesday, September 30)
AL 4 Yankees vs 5 Red Sox — A rivalry renews in a compressed format. New York’s star power and bullpen leverage face Boston’s contact-and-cutter attack. Winner advances to play the 1-seed Blue Jays.
AL 3 Guardians vs 6 Tigers — A Central grudge series built on pitching and run prevention. Cleveland own home field; Detroit’s growth step arrives sooner than anyone expected. Winner faces the 2-seed Mariners.
NL 4 Cubs vs 5 Padres — Chicago’s strike-throwing rotation and deep bench meet San Diego’s star-driven top end. Weather and ballpark factor matter at Wrigley over three nights. Winner advances to play the 1-seed Brewers.
NL 3 Dodgers vs 6 Reds — Youthful, streaky Cincinnati earned the last ticket and draw a Los Angeles club that finished strong and lines up its pitching. Winner advances to play the 2-seed Phillies.
How the bracket lines up
AL side: Blue Jays await the Yankees–Red Sox winner; Mariners await Guardians–Tigers. NL side: Brewers await Cubs–Padres; Phillies await Dodgers–Reds. No reseeding; the paths are fixed.
Five storylines that will shape October
1. Top-seed torque: Toronto and Milwaukee earned rest and rotation control. How they deploy aces in Games 1–2 will cascade across each side of the bracket.
2. Short-series volatility: Best-of-three rewards swing-and-miss pitching and mistake-free defense. Expect aggressive bullpen hooks from the first sign of traffic.
3. Dodgers’ reset: A late surge and a healthy top of the order give Los Angeles a clearer blueprint than they had in August. Cincinnati’s speed and youth test their run prevention immediately.
4. AL East aftershocks: If Yankees–Red Sox burns bullpen bullets, the survivor walks straight into Toronto with limited rest — a real edge for the top seed.
5. Central casting: Cleveland–Detroit is built for 3–2 games. One big swing or one infield play may decide the series — and Seattle’s opponent.
Key dates
Wild Card Series: September 30–October 2. Division Series: begin October 4. League Championship Series: mid-October. World Series: late October into early November.
Bottom line
Twelve teams are in and none are bulletproof. Toronto and Milwaukee hold the clearest advantages — rest, home field, and depth — but a two-day wobble can flip an entire side of the bracket. The shortest series could carry the loudest swings.