Three games remain. Most division flags are up, but a handful of lines on the bracket are still in pencil. Here’s where things stand and what actually matters over the last weekend.
What’s already settled
The National League’s divisions are spoken for: Milwaukee in the Central, Philadelphia in the East and Los Angeles in the West. Philadelphia has secured a first-round bye. In the American League, Seattle have won the West and are locked into a bye to the ALDS.
American League races
The AL East is a straight shootout between the Yankees and Blue Jays, level on record. Both are already in; the winner takes the division and the second ALDS bye, the loser drops to the top Wild Card. The schedule keeps it tight: Baltimore visit the Yankees; Tampa Bay visit Toronto. Toronto holds the tiebreak if they finish even.
The AL Central is also tied, Guardians and Tigers neck-and-neck with Cleveland owning the head-to-head edge. The runner-up should still be alive via the Wild Card, but Boston sit ahead in that queue and Houston are close enough to complicate matters. Series to watch: Tigers at Red Sox, Rangers at Guardians, Astros at Angels.
AL Wild Card snapshot
Top seed goes to the AL East runner-up. Boston currently lead the second slot. The third berth is effectively a duel between the Central runner-up and Houston, with the Astros needing a near-perfect weekend and a little help elsewhere to jump the line.
National League picture
Two Wild Card places are secure: the Cubs and the Padres. The final NL ticket is a three-team scramble with the Mets slightly ahead of the Reds and the Diamondbacks. Weekends that matter: Mets at Marlins, Reds at Brewers, Diamondbacks at Padres. Cincinnati’s tiebreak math is favorable in several scenarios, but the Mets control their own path.
Seeding watch
Milwaukee and Philadelphia are sprinting for the NL’s No. 1 seed and home-field through the league playoffs, with the Brewers holding the edge and the tiebreaker. In the AL, the byes belong to Seattle and whichever of New York or Toronto wins the East.
Series that decide things
Orioles at Yankees and Rays at Blue Jays will swing the AL East and the top Wild Card seed with every inning. Tigers at Red Sox and Rangers at Guardians will likely determine both the Central and one Wild Card berth. Mets at Marlins, Reds at Brewers and Diamondbacks at Padres amount to a nightly elimination bracket for the NL’s last spot.
Bottom line
In the AL, two division titles and the final Wild Card place are live to the wire; one wobble from the Central clubs or Houston could rewrite Sunday. In the NL, five are already through and one chair is left; New York lead, Cincinnati and Arizona chase, and the scoreboard-watching will run late.