13.11.2024 Roki Sasaki's MLB Arrival: A New Wave of Japanese Pitching Talent

Here we go — Roki Sasaki, the latest prodigy from Japan, is coming to the MLB. This 22-year-old pitcher, often dubbed the "hot shot" of Japanese baseball, has U.S. teams buzzing. While he might not command the astronomical contracts that pitchers like Yoshinobu Yamamoto have pulled, Sasaki is quickly building a reputation that has scouts, GMs, and fans alike wondering if he’s the next ace to emerge from the NPB.

Let’s break it down. Sasaki brings some risks—he’s young, and his velocity has dipped a bit recently. But even with that, the numbers show he’s a serious talent. In 111 innings pitched (IP) in Japan, he allowed only 83 hits, gave up just two home runs, and walked 32. Those stats yield a Total Bases Allowed per 9 innings (TBA9) of just 9.97, which, to put it bluntly, would outclass every MLB pitcher this season. The closest in MLB right now is Paul Skenes with an 11.64 TBA9—quite the gap.

Now, let’s stack Sasaki against the recent Japanese imports who’ve made waves. Shota Imanaga joined MLB last year, and in 2023 in Japan, he put up solid numbers: 132 hits, 17 home runs, and 24 walks over 148 innings for a TBA9 of 13.62. But the transition to MLB was noticeable—Imanaga’s TBA9 jumped to 14.71 across 173 IP in 2024.

Then there’s Yamamoto, who’s on another level entirely. In his 2023 season in Japan, Yamamoto gave up only 117 hits, two home runs, and 28 walks over 164 IP, which resulted in an unbelievable TBA9 of about 8.40. After his move to the MLB, he still had a standout season but saw his TBA9 rise to 12.80 across 90 innings (78 hits, 7 homers, and 22 walks). Even Yamamoto, as exceptional as he is, saw the jump in TBA9 that most Japanese pitchers seem to face when adjusting to MLB’s different pace, hitters, and strike zones.

So what’s Sasaki’s outlook? Given the numbers and the clear trend for Japanese pitchers—who tend to see a bump in TBA9 but still remain competitive—the data suggests Sasaki is primed to be a phenomenal MLB signing. He’s young, perhaps with room to iron out a few rough edges, but the talent is undoubtedly there. Whichever team snags him will gain a pitcher with a unique blend of control, resilience, and raw talent—attributes that, as we’ve seen, often translate well to the MLB stage.

The question now is, who’s going to land him? The race is on.