With the regular season in its final sprint, six division races have mostly taken shape while both Wild Card chases remain crowded enough to swing on a single bad weekend. Here’s where things stand and what matters next for anyone who hasn’t been following closely.

Division picture
American League: Toronto have set the pace in the East, Detroit have turned the Central into a feel-good march toward October, and the West is a tug-of-war between Houston and Seattle, with Texas still close enough to matter. Toronto and Detroit have usable cushions; the West likely comes down to the final week.

National League: Los Angeles look the class of the West again, Philadelphia have controlled the East, and Milwaukee’s grind has kept them ahead in the Central. Those three feel safest; seeding, not survival, is their main concern.

Wild Card races
AL Wild Card: New York and Boston sit in the top two slots. The third berth is effectively a pressure valve for the AL West — whichever of Houston/Seattle doesn’t win the division has the inside track — but Texas and Cleveland are near enough that a four-day wobble could flip the order.

NL Wild Card: Chicago lead a tight pack, with San Diego and the Mets occupying the other spots as the run-in begins. Cincinnati and San Francisco are within striking distance; head-to-head tiebreakers may decide the final ticket.

Awards snapshot
MVP: Aaron Judge has built another heavyweight case — elite average, elite power, elite value — while the home-run race has been box-office stuff at both ends of the country. In the NL, cornerstone bats on the Dodgers and Phillies headline the conversation; in the AL, a couple of Seattle sluggers and Toronto’s engine room are in the mix behind Judge.

Cy Young: Yoshinobu Yamamoto has looked every inch an ace in the NL, while Tarik Skubal has front-runner credentials in the AL. Second-year phenom Paul Skenes has forced his way into the conversation with sparkling run prevention; several high-strikeout lefties are lurking if any of the leaders stumble.

What’s driving results
• Big-club depth: The Dodgers and Phillies have covered injuries with wave after wave of competent pitching and bench offense, turning rough patches into brief dips instead of slides.
• Run prevention wins: Detroit’s rise has been built on strike throwing and defense; Milwaukee are doing similar in the Central.
• West as a gatekeeper: In the AL, the Houston/Seattle/Texas triangle effectively controls the final Wild Card berth; in the NL, the Giants’ schedule against the Dodgers and Padres doubles as a nightly referendum on their own bid.

Series to watch
Astros–Mariners (division and Wild Card leverage in the same series), Dodgers–Giants (seeding for one, survival for the other), Cubs–Reds (the NL’s swing series if it tightens), and any head-to-head among Yankees/Red Sox/Guardians/Rangers.

Bottom line
Five or six true contenders have separated — Dodgers, Phillies and Brewers in the NL; Blue Jays and Tigers in the AL, plus one of Astros/Mariners — but the bracket is far from locked. One hot week, one bullpen wobble, and the October map changes. That’s September baseball: tense, tactical, and decided at the margins.